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EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal

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Feb 13 2013

EURUSD found some support yesterday and is now testing the upper side of a corrective channel. As such, we need to be aware of an uptrend continuation as A-B-C corrective decline from 1.3710 may have already finished. However, recovery from latest swing low is still not in five waves, therefore we need to wait on more price data and time before bullish run for the EURUSD can be confirmed. Ideally, current recovery from 1.3350 will extend in five waves towards 1.3550 with a daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal we are waiting for.


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USDJPY Could Reach 95.00 (Elliott Wave)

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Feb 12 2013

JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.


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Larger Trend For The EURUSD Could Resume In This Week; “Be Prepared”

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Feb 11 2013

EURUSD reversed sharply lower last week after the ECB press conference. But despite recent pull-back, larger trend for the EURUSD remains bullish. The reasons is on a weekly chart where we can see that pair is still above two very important trend-lines connected from 1.0240 and 1.2660. Therefore, we think that bears are only temporary.



On the 4h chart below we can see that decline in C from 1.3596 can be counted in five waves, which means that whole three wave A-B-C decline from 1.3710 high could be near completion. Keep in mind that three wave movement is corrective structure so larger uptrend could resume, but we need some evidences from the market before bullish case can be confirmed. With that said, we need an impulsive rally back towards 1.3500; only then we will focus on new leg higher, back above 1.3700.






S&P500: Daily Close Above 1515 Puts 1528-1535 Target In Play

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Feb 08 2013

US stocks opened higher after a rally on S&P Futures that was supported by a better than expected trade balance figures from the US (-38.5B vs. -45.7Bexp). S&P500 is at the highs and we need to respect the current price action, so we think that complex wave four which was unfolding for the past few days is complete. We however still want to see daily close price above 1515 today, but our focus however, will be a five wave rally towards 1528-1535 region next week. Any short-term retracement could look for the support at 1508. We are looking higher as long as short-term invalidation level remains in place at 1498!



AUDUSD Could Extend Deeper Based On Technical and Fundamental Outlook

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Feb 05 2013

AUD is weak today after unchanged rates decisions from the RBA members; 3.00%. However, there are speculations for further easing and possible cut on the next meeting because of inflation outlook and higher unemployment. This is the reason for weakness on AUDUSD which could extend much lower in this week. Technical outlook for the pair is also bearish after recent slow and overlapping structure in 1.0360-1.0475 range, which could be a triangle in fourth wave. Triangle is a five wave pattern that typical occurs in the middle of a larger trend, so it’s basically a continuation pattern. With that said be aware of fall through 1.0360 after completed wave (e) which is now underway up to 1.0410-1.0440 resistance.



On a daily chart we can also see a corrective advance from 1.0145 followed by a recently broken support channel line around 1.0415 (circled) which confirms the idea of a bearish trend for AUDUSD. So looking for lower levels on this pair makes sense.



EURUSD: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action

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Feb 05 2013

EURUSD pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.


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S&P500 And TLT Forming A Temporary Pull-back Within A Larger Trend

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Feb 04 2013

S&P500 is forming a pull-back after a Friday's rally which could be just another corrective move that may provide new long opportunity within a larger uptrend. We will be tracking a three wave retracement back to 1496 key support zone.

sp

This ongoing pull-back is also confirmed by TLT which is rising against previous five wave fall. Three wave bounce should stop at 117.90 or maybe at 118.60 resistance level. Fall from there will support the US stock market.

tlt

*When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down and vice-versa!

*iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.


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