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I hope you had some great time during the holiday break, but unfortunately it always ends too fast, but we are lucky that we love our job, right?

Before we go to charting today, let’s see what could happen on this market based on sentiment and psychology. Those who are following me on twitter will know that I highlighted on Thursday that holidays are approaching which is usually the reason for a change in trend because of portfolio adjustments and so on. At that time, we were expecting higher EURUSD, which was clearly the case in the last few trading days. The same was expected on S&P futures which also changed the direction few sessions back. Well, we need to keep in mind that in normal trading days, money will flow back into the market, so what this means is that primary trend, which was down on EUR and up on stocks could resume. With that in mind be aware of continuation of a trend that was ahead of holidays.

In fact, from a technical perspective we can see only three wave rise on EURUSD from the lows which is corrective movement that also reversed down from swings of wave four of a lesser degree. Pattern is bearish on the EURUSD which could fall beneath 1.2750 in this week. Resistance is at 1.2870-1.2940.

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Despite a big gap down on USDJPY pair remains in bullish mode as decline is actually still in three waves which we think it's wave (iv). Notice that wave (iv) is actually testing some interesting levels around 04.30, where we can see an upper line of a base channel as well as 38.2% retracement level compared to wave (iii). With that said, pair could continue higher in this week, but we need to keep a close eye on 95.45/95.70 level. An overlap will confirm the bullish case. Why? Because in such case decline from the top would be a completed three wave fall which is a corrective structure.