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03/12 Webinar recording

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March 12 2014

Our webinar recording; covered Copper, DAX, AUDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, S&P.





GBPUSD; Three Legs Down To 1.6550

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March 11 2014

GBPUSD turned down yesterday, through the lower side of an upward channel that suggest now a completed wave B. As such price is now heading down in wave C final leg of corrective pattern that may look for a support around 1.6550 later this week. Keep in mind that larger trend is still up, and that retracement from 1.6822 is just temporary.



On the intraday chart of cable we see slow price action above 1.6620 level after some strong sell-off yesterday through 1.6700 zone. That move yesterday was most likely wave (iii) of an impulsive decline in progress, so we suspect that current pause represents wave (iv) so we can assume that GBPUSD has room for more weakness within current wave C.






Elliott Wave Video Analysis: USDCHF

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March 05 2014

USDCHF is recovering in five waves from the lows, so looks like price is at the start of a bigger minimum three waves rally. From a trading perspective, a three wave retracement back to 0.8830/50 area could be nice set-up for long opportunity. For more details make sure to check our video below.

Video analysis


  


More Upside For S&P500

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Feb 28 2014

On the S&P futures market we see a nice clean bullish pattern on the intraday charts after only three wave retracement down to 1833 which was a contra trend move, now finished. In fact, a reversal from that low looks impulsive and already took out the upper side of a corrective channel so bias is bullish for move above 1860, ideally to 1870 in sessions ahead. A demand zone for this market is at 1840-1846.





Bullish Pattern On Bund Suggests Limited Upside For EURUSD

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Feb 26 2014

Today we will look at German Bunds and help with this market to figure out the next possible move for the EURUSD. On the 4h chart of German Bund (Mar 2014) I see a triangle in progress that suggests higher prices once the pattern is complete. Triangle is a continuation, a five wave pattern labeled with A-B-C-D-E subwaves, where each leg is made by three legs. So far this looks nice so we can assume that market will turn up after wave E pullback down to 143.40-143.80 ideal support area. The big question is how will this impact the EURUSD?! Well, on the overlay chart we see a negative correlation between EURUSD and BUNDS, so if BUNDS will continue higher, then EURUSD should find resistance and turn bearish. We see technical resistance on EURUSD coming in around 1.3800.

German Bunds (Mar 2014) 4h



EURUSD vs Bunds 2h




Triangle On Silver Is Pointing Higher

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Feb 24 2014

Silver has turned bullish in February with nice impulsive personality. However, nothing moves in straight line; and the same is on silver as prices slowed down after touching $22.00. Notice that metal is trading sideways for the past week or so. A range-bound or a sideways move at the top of the trend usually represents only a corrective pause within ongoing trend. On silver we see a triangle placed in wave (iv) which is a continuation pattern. A break of $22 may open door for 22.50/22.70 area.








Stocks Rally; Seeking Longs On Yen Crosses

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Feb 12 2014

The US stocks once again moved nicely to the upside, so I am already wondering if maybe we have seen a completed correction at 1732 on the S&P500 and if market is already heading up to new all-time highs again . At the same time we can also see that some commodities are following stocks, while the FX is surprisingly very slow and not responding much to other markets. Even USDJPY is lagging for the last few 24-48 hours which is tracking the S&P500 quite nicely.

S&P500 vs USDJPY 4h


With bullish stocks and USDJPY we still think that opportunities are on the short side of Japanese yen against the other currencies. However, we would need some pullback on Yen-crosses before we may look for any trading candidates in the risk-on environment. A pullback could unfold soon if we consider that the S&P is in final stages of an impulsive rally. I can count five waves up from 1732, so we may see a downward correction in the rest of the week. A set-back on stocks would then most likely cause also a pullback on Yen pairs. Short-term resistance on the S&P futures is at 1820-1830

S&P500 (Mar 2014) 1h


EURJPY is showing nice five waves from the lows, so maybe wave B retracement back to 138.10/90 area will offer some long entries.

EURJPY 4h

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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