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Dax is trading lower or sideways I should say since 2018, and at the moment its in strong negative correlation with SP500 if we consider that US stocks are at ATH. But this divergence has been the case several times through the past few years so this is not any real big issue yet, but when global stocks do not agree or move the same it may be an evidence that market is maybe approaching a top that can be seen in years ahead.

However, before I may consider a top I have to see a completed pattern. But when looking at the trend from 8700 area I do not see five waves up yet, so it makes me think that reversal down from the January of this year is wave IV. This is a pause within ongoing trend, so I assume that fifth wave is still coming. The only question is, if this new leg up will come from a triangle or after deep A-B-C pullback in wave IV? In either case I think it’s worth to keep an eye for evidence of a bullish continuation, after A-B-C-D-E subwaves if 11700 holds, or from 11280 if mentioned swing is broken. Time is needed in both cases as corrective set-back is not done yet, but I remain bullish for 14000-15000 while market is above the lowest trendline of an 8-year old channel.

Trade well,
GH

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Aug 31 2018

Do you know what is the most important as a trader? It’s to have your own bias, opinion, but at the same time to be “open minded” and be willing to listen the market and adjust the view whenever that’s needed.

My full time job is analysis, so trading is like a half-time job I would say, because I am not constantly risking my money. Analysis its very important for me, and I have to spent hours before I find some trade set-up, if there is any! Normally I analyze 80-90% of the time, and trade only 10%, so even trading requires a lot of work, no doubt!

As a trader, its important to consider both sides of the market, bull or bear, no matter what my analysis says, because we don’t know what market will actually do, so it’s good to be prepared rather than be surprised. With that being said, I am tracking EURUSD and USDCAD pairs for next week, but what is interesting is that I have EURUSD on my watchlist for possible longs on pullback, but at the same time also looking at USD for possible longs against CAD. I have no idea which one I will trade next week, but what I like about them is the price structure, but as always I have to be patient here before I make decision.

On EURUSD we can see a very nice five wave recovery from 1.1300 area into 1.1730/50 resistance where wave A can be done, so with that being said I am interested in longs but after wave B pullback. Corrective wave B usually retraces back to former wave four and at least for 38.2% so I definitely need to see pair trading around 1.1530/50 before I may consider longs. So nothing useful yet, but I have it on my radar screen.

EURUSD 4h Chart

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Aug 30 2018

Hello traders!

Cable is turning down this year after a very big but overlapping recovery from 2016 lows, labeled now as completed red wave IV) because of a sharp decline out of an upward channel. However, price has recently found some support around 1.2770 from where we may see a new corrective rally labeled as wave II, which can make 600-700 pips pullback based on past price movements and ranges.
 

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Aug 19 2018

Hello traders!

This month I have been talking and tracking EURUSD and GBPJPY a lot, and also made video analysis (CLICK HERE) and highlighted bearish patterns that I was observing. So far, market moved very nicely, into important levels so I decided to make a new video update.
 

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Aug 16 2018

Ethereum is coming sharply to the downside, making an impulsive decline from July highs which is not over yet. An impulse is a five wave structure, where third wave is normally the sharpest and longest and this is exactly what we can see down from 485 level. It's an extended decline in five legs that is moving into some interesting Fib. support extensions here around 220/260, where can be a new potential base for current blue wave three. Bounce into wave four may show up soon, and can stop at 318-345 resistance.

We understand that there are a lot of traders and investors waiting on bottom to form, but for now that's not the case yet so we have to respect what the market is doing. But we of-course would aggressively shift back to bullish mode once we see an impulse up from the low! This is key for any change in trend, in any market!


Digital Currency service
An advanced technical market analysis on BTCUSD, ETHUSD, LTCUSD, BCHUSD, XRPUSD plus some others ALT coins

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Aug 06 2018

I am back from a  two week vacation when I left you with some of my views on EURUSD and then also GBPJPY. So here is a short update on these markets in video format.

Trade well,

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July 31 2018

Traders, good morning with a quick outlook from vacation. I am in Bale/Valle with my family, having a great time in mobile house, but like every year its very difficult not to look at the market price action. So after a quick look at quotes I noticed interesting potential risk-off developments on S&P500 Futures where I see five wave fall on intraday chart, which means more downside may come soon. If that's the case then in risk-off mode we may expect strong JPY. I am looking at GBPJPY for a pullback after that nice drop from wave C highs that suggests a completed wave four of a higher degree.

Trade well,