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EURUSD Could Fall Further And USDJPY Rise More If US Bonds Will Move Down

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Oct 31 2013

US Treasury notes and bonds turned bearish yesterday after FOMC statement which was just a trigger for a reversal that has been expected already earlier. Notice that from September low, rally on 5 Year notes can be counted in five waves with wedge at the top of the current rally which is a reversal sign. Traders with Elliott Wave approach will also know that after every five waves correction follows back to the area of the former wave 4). If we are correct then US bonds and notes will move lower in the next days, but the question is how it will impact the FX market? Well, we see a positive correlation between the EUR and US notes so if the US notes will fall then the EURUSD will probably follow. At the same time we can see a negative correlation between US notes and USDJPY; that’s because rising US yields.





USD Index and Aud/Usd Intra-day Video

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Oct 21 2013

USD index pull-back could be good for new longs on AUDUSD.




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USD Index Could Make A Corrective retracement

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Oct 18 2013

USD remains clearly in a bearish mode across the board while the US bonds and now also US stocks are trading higher. However, current bearish trend of the USD could slow down for few sessions because of five waves down and oversold conditions. As such, traders need to be aware of a corrective rally in three legs.
USD Index 1h

Once USD index will make that three waves up we will be interested to go long EURUSD with members.

Trade well!



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USD Index Video Update

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Oct 11 2013

Few days back we published an article on our website and highlighted that we anticipate a rally on USD index in minimum three waves back to 80.73. In the next video we will look at some evidences and reasons why we turned up on the USD, and where prices could go from here. And more importantly, what we need to see to confirm further direction on USD Index. Somehow we favor more downside, but more about this in the video.




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USD Index Could Make A Corrective Bounce

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Oct 08 2013

On Friday we mentioned to our members that downside on USD Index is limited which has proved correct as prices are already recovering from latest low. In fact, recovery is not a surprise after five waves of decline, bullish RSI divergence plus an ending diagonal placed in wave (v). These are all important pieces that put USD index in a recovery mode, for a minimum three wave rally. This three wave rally, in (a)-(b)-(c) structure can reach 80.73 figure which was wave four swing high.





German Dax: Temporary Correction Within Uptrend

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Sep 26 2013

German DAX futures are in bullish move since start of September, showing an impulsive price action. Impulse is a five wave pattern so we expect more upside as current decline from the highs appears to be only a fourth wave, a temporary contra-trend movement. For now, we don't see a completed pull-back yet, but market could find a support around 8510-8570 region where we see an open gap. Those gaps could react as a reversal, in our case as a support in wave 4 for a bounce back up into wave 5. Targets for wave 5 would then be around 8860 where we see a 200% extension of a previous decline from 8460 to 8090 in August.





EURUSD: Bullish Impulsive Structure

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Sep 19 2013

Traders, I am observing a new very interesting bullish count for the EURUSD. I am tracking an impulsive move which has room for much higher levels and reason for this view is very simple; I just want to get involved if those breakouts and current direction (weak USD) is for real. With that said, I will keep an eye on pull-backs; that would be wave iv) that could start unfolding from around 1.3520-1.3585 wave iii) resistance area. If this count is correct, then EURUSD should make a daily close around current levels (1.3500) or higher. Patience!



A broken support line on a weekly USD Index chart is the main reason why we favour USD Shorts at the moment.





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