Euro is still trapped in tight ranges around 1.2700 market and its more than obvious that corrective rally since start of June is incomplete. Notice that in the recent sell-off market did not break through the lower support line of a corrective channel, which means that price did not confirm a downtrend continuation! So for now we need to stay with current sentiment, tracking a double zig-zag headed to 1.2780 resistance area, before market turns bearish.
Bottom line: recovery is corrective and weakness will come!
Crude made only three down from 87 to 81 area which means that this structure is corrective, but part of a larger incomplete complex correction. After a sell-off yesterday, we know favours a triangle pattern placed in wave 4. However, prices are now still only in wave (d) , so more sideways before going lower. If we are correct, the prices will now remain below 85.50 short-term critical resistance.
Euro reversed higher in this week from 1.2440 support, and did not break below former swing lows. Notice that price is actually trading sideways, which in fact count be a running triangle in wave X. So as you can see, we adjusted the wave count, but bias is the same- wave 4) is incomplete, so we are ready for even more sideways or bullish price action.
Aussie once again reversed from parity few sessions back, but did not move much since then. Prices slowed down in tight range which is consolidation for B) wave, likely a triangle. We expect a C) breakout in sessions ahead.
Usd/Jpy was trading lower for few months now and formed a quite choppy and slow price action, which represents wave D of a huge triangle placed in wave IV), shown on a weekly chart. Recent prices reached our 78.00 projected level, from where an impulsive reversal occurred a week back, suggesting that wave D is finished and three wave recovery underway in E.
NFP release on Friday June1st was the trend changer for now, from risk off to risk on mode. We call this a temporary recovery, in which high yielding currencies will normally be the strongest. Aud/Usd recovered almost 300 pips from its recent low, most since Feb 29 2012.
In fact, we notified our members about thsi recovery already on Friday, and what we anticipated in this week. Find our more in video below:
Aussie moved lower in the past week as expected, and hit a projected Fibo ratio; 2.00 x wave (1) before reversed to the upside. Notice that current recovery is now already testing falling EW channel resistance line, where a breakout will definitely put wave (4) into action. We will be tracking a three wave rise from the most recent lows, before we may continue to look to the downisde.