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Where Are Markets Headed Next?

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Nov 24 2012

Despite a low volume on a holiday-shortened session the US stock markets rallied sharply on Black Friday and closed in green more than 1%. The USD moved sharply to the downside and it seems that this is just a start of something bigger. The interesting is that reversal in USD trend from bullish to bearish mode has already been expected on November 16th when USD Index completed its ending diagonal pattern at 81.46.

What is ending diagonal?

We spotted this pattern on USD Index and EURUSD and immediately prepared our clients on scenarios for USD weakness.

USD Index 4h


But pattern on USD index was not the only one that was pointing for trend reversal in global markets. In fact two weeks back Gold already made five waves up from the lows, while the S&P500 was at interesting support around 1340. And when we saw a reaction higher on S&P500 from that level we were even more confident that USD will fall. And here we are today, EURUSD close to 1.3000, Gold at 1750 and S&P500 above 1400.

If you want to see big picture for these market please check our video from Nov 13th. You will find out where we think the markets are headed next.




USDCAD: Top In Place At 1.0056

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Nov 21 2012

USDCAD extended lower in this week after Fridays high, and now showing even more signs that top is in place at 1.0056. In fact, intra-day decline from the high is looking impulsive, sharp move in the short period of time that indicates a change in trend for a minimum three wave fall. If we are correct, then current minor recovery represents temporary pull-back that must not move above 1.0056 invalidation level.

usdcad650
 
 

GOLD Is Bullish For 1740 While Above 1672

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Nov 17 2012

Gold moved lower yesterday and tested 1698-1708 area that we highlighted several times this week. We still think that decline from 1738 is corrective wave 2, which means that traders should be aware of a break higher, while market trades above 1672 invalidation level. The fact is that recovery from 1672 can be counted impulsively and we know that impulses show direction of a larger trend or indicate cahnge in trend. In the very short-term we expect another test of 1700 before wave 2 completes.





EURUSD: Final Stages Of Downtrend!?

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Nov 13 2012

EURUSD could be in final stages of a five wave decline in wave C) from 1.3140, that represents part of a corrective wave (B) started back in September. Wave C) is still not showing any sings of a bottom, but based on MACD reading we see that bearish momentum is decreasing, so low could be near. We however expect test of a new low, around 1.2650.




GBPUSD: Pair Looking Towards 1.5800-1.5870

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Nov 08 2012

We are tracking bearish price action on Cable after sharp fall last week through the channel support line, which means that recovery from 1.5913 was a three wave movement, now labeled as wave X). As such, we are tracking another three wave decline from recent 1.6176 swing high headed towards 1.5800-1.5870 projected region. Minor wave B is already showing signs of a top at 1.6043 which means that new low could be seen very soon. Keep in mind BoE rate decision is today at 12:00GMT.




USD Index Intra-day

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Nov 02

USD Index is looking bullish after recent rally up to 80.30 area which appears to be wave three of an impulsive structure after a nice reversal higher from a wave (b) low that was a "text book" example of an expanded flat. Market is bullish now for 80.50-80.70 zone



(Video) EURUSD: Triangle Within A Bullish Trend

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Oct 30 2012

Markets are slow and choppy for some time now, and with US equity market closed and low liquidity we think that EURUSD will not break out of this range so soon. But when it will this will most likely be to the upside, if we consider that pair has turned bullish this summer.
On the chart below we can see that pair found the support few sessions back around 1.2880, at the trend-line connected from 1.2800 swing from late September. Notice that today’s rise is quite sharp on the intra-day basis which has also extended through the falling channel line. We think that’s very important, because if price will close above resistance line today, then trend would turn into a temporary bullish mode. Why temporary!? Because we are tracking a triangle and in such case any rally up to 1.3100 will represent wave D), still only fourth leg of a triangle pattern. But we need five of them, so our special focus should be on wave E) low once gets underway. However, it’s still plenty of time until then so we must be patient, and wait on more price data before we may even consider opportunities to the upside.

To hear and learn more about triangles, please review the video below.

Have a good day!



Video: Click here


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