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Bullish Flag On Gold

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Dec 29 2020

Low interest rates and QE from central banks caused strong bullish trend across different assets. But what we see for the last few months is pullback on gold and US bonds, while stocks are printing new highs due to covid-19 vaccine that brings back optimism for move” back to normal life and economy” in 2021. However, stocks are very high and they may face a retracement next year, maybe even based on “buy the rumour sell the news impact”. In such case investors may look to hide in bonds or metals.

From a technical point of view we see US Treasurys bullish on a weekly scale, and they are unfolding five waves up from 2018 low where 5th wave is still missing as shown on 10 year US notes chart. If you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that impulses need to be completed with five waves so new highs can be in the cards in 2021. In fact, current price action since March on the 10 year is slow and sideways, so based on personality and characteristics we believe it’s corrective wave 4. If we are correct, then more upside on 10 year is also going to be supportive for gold that may breakout of a bullish flag. Some traders and investors may also look at TLT here around current trendline support.

Happy holidays and all the best in 2021.

Trade well!

GH

 

Bitcoin Approaching 25k Resistance . A turnaround in 2021?

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Dec 23 2020

Hello traders,

Below is new video analysis, talking about Bitcoin which broke to a new all time high. However, the optimism is increasing visible through calls like "we are going to 300k", "FIAT is dead because of QE",  and also google search "bitcoin" is popular these days so when something like this happens then you know that it's good to be patient and be aware of a reversal. And as I said so many times before, everyone are looking for upside levels, but only a few are aware of a real downside risk.

Enjoy the video,

Grega


 

Orbex Video: Surfing the Waves

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Dec 22 2020

Hello traders,

Below is new video analysis, covering euro, aussie, gold, dax and crude oil

Grega


New Covid Strain Causes Some Risk-off

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Dec 21 2020

Markets are in risk-off mode after new covid strain boosts the dollar. At the same time we see only gold moving higher meaning traders are concerned about the current covid situation. Plus, there are end of the year flows and position adjustments which is also very important driver for reversal as we approach the holidays.

On German dax we can see that price is turning down from a new high after it touched the upper line of an EW channel. We see a sharp intraday weakness right now which makes us think that top can be put in place for wave five and that lower prices may follow. Divergence on the RSI may also indicate a potential top so be aware of an A-B-C retracement, ideally back to 12300-12500 support early in January.

If you love the analysis or you are interested in market-sentiment cylces then you may want o look at our Elliott Wave charts and members-research at www.ew-forecast.com

GH


BTCUSD Slowed Down For A Correction Within Uptrend

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Dec 14 2020

Cryptocurrencies are up, but ALT coins not so much, so strong rally on BTCUSD is mainly because of BTC dominance, which we see it still dominating in the future. It also means that BTC may easily remain in the uptrend.

If you are familiar with Elliott Wave, then you know that impulsive wave structure consists of five waves. If you look closely, you will notice that recent extended rise caused a break above the base channel resistance line, so it is confirmation that this was wave III and that price is currently consolidating within wave IV before the uptrend for the final wave V resumes. Wave IV correction can be sometimes very complex, so at this stage we are observing two possible scenarios. Either we will see a sideways price action like a triangle pattern, or we will see a flat correction that can retest 16000 support level. But in both cases be aware of the final push to a new high as long as price trades above 12500, but on the other hand move beneath 14000 would already be an important level to change the view.

Keep in mind that bitcoin is very volatile when looking back on a higher degree charts, so do not just buy and HODL here, because we still think that price is high, for HODL much better is to buy low. At this stage, a lot of traders and investors are seeing a lot of upside potential, but only a few are aware of a downside risk.
GH


If you love the analysis or you are interested in market-sentiment cylces then you may want o look at our Elliott Wave charts and members-research at www.ew-forecast.com, or follow me on twitter @gregahorvatfx

All the best.

Grega


DXY and SP500-Put/Call Ratio May Indicate a Slow-down Of Current Trends

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Dec 09 2020

Hello traders,
As we all know the stock market has recovered very sharply and fast since March when we saw a strong drop following coronavirus lockdowns. The monetary policy has quickly changed and caused a rebound on financial assets after QE, stimulus packages, and lower rates. Stock indexes are higher, some even beyond March levels even though COVID is not anywhere near the end; in fact, we see more and more lockdowns and restrictions happening globally each day. It’s a clear evidence that QE is driving the markets and not real situation of the economy. But we have to realize that stock market is not an economy; stock prices are driven by supply and demand, and looks like more money printing obviously means more buying power.

I think that stock market is good indicator for overall market sentiment, and currently we see more and more investors trying to jump on the train despite prices printing new all-time high. On put/call index ratio we can see that investors are buying a lot of call as they believe that prices will be higher in the future. When calls move to extreme then it usually means the opposite as we know that market moves from pessimism to optimism and vice-versa. So if we respect past shift in trends on the S&P500 due to PUT/CALL ratio extremes then we shall also be aware of reversal now. I think there can be a risk-off, maybe in 2021. It can be only temporary turn or pullback before we go even higher, but I think that it will be much better opportunity to look for investments when PUT/CALL will be at the other side of the extreme.
 


*source IndexIndicators.com

We know that when there is risk-off the cash is king, so normally the USD will rise, which some may not agree because of money printing that drives down the value of the money. However, I believe there will be pullback even if dollar is going to crash, and this pullback may not be far away if we consider that DXY/SP500 ratio is seen in a fifth wave of a drop from March high. Based on Elliott Wave theory, the market is in final leg of current bearish development so next reaction is a contract-rend, normally in minimum three legs. And this goes perfectly with the PUT/CAL ratio view above.



The reason why people move into cash during the stock market sell-off is because of fear, they feel much better and safer with “cash in hand” rather than invested in some stocks during volatile and uncertain times. However, some will look to hide in metals or bonds but these requires patience. I think Gold is very interesting from the fundamental perspective, but when looking at the price and upward potential I really love Silver. TLT is also one option but there have been times when even bonds and metals fell “during stock market shock” but then quickly stabilized. The TLT is looking quite interesting while it trades above the trendline support, but falling trendline shall be broken to confirm the resumption of an uptrend.

Silver has a support here at 21/19 where current pullback can come to an end.

If you love the analysis or you are interested in market-sentiment cylces then you may want o look at our Elliott Wave charts and members-research at www.ew-forecast.com, or follow me on twitter @gregahorvatfx

All the best.

Grega





 

BLACK FRIDAY EDITION- Elliott Wave Video Analysis

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Nov 26 2020

Hi there!

If you celebrate Thanksgiving Day then I hope you have some lovely time with your family despite global lockdown.

Below you will find some of my latest analysis and opinion on markets, based on current conditions.

Talk to you soon.
GH


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