Top ↑

EURUSD found some support at 1.1429 where pair completed a five wave fall from 1.1816, which can be either final leg of an A-B-C flat, or maybe resumption of a downtrend. My primary count is a flat, which means that new leg up to 1.19 can be coming. But as a trader and analyst I always try to focus on minimum expectations and not predict the next move too far into the future. I want to go with a step-by-step process. That said, I have an ALT label also on that same chart, a top of wave four at 1.1816, but even this one suggests more upside as recovery against that five wave fall should be made by three waves minimum. That said, no matter how I look a the price move of EURUSD I think there is a chance that pair will see 1.1670/1.1700 area based on two different interpretations.
You know, its always good to plan your next trade from a different perspectives and based on minimum expected move, to build a valid reward-risk set-up (2 or 3:1), but If your maximum or primary levels are meet then trade award will increase significantly.

I wish you a good trading decisions,
Grega

Top ↑

Top ↑

Bitcoin is trading bearish for the whole 2018 year and seems like it can stay under pressure till the end of 2018.

As you know, an ending diagonal is one option as Grega highlighted it in video analysis (click here) and what we currently also see is a bearish triangle in progress, which is a continuation pattern, so another leg to the downside can be coming which Grega highlighted it as well in his outlook. We don't actually believe that BTC will turn up until we see a break into new lows first.

We are sharing an interesting chart below, which has many evidences of a bearish continuation. Firstly, as we said its a bearish triangle in progress due to repeated three leg structures within a sideways range, so trend remains down since we havent seen any five wave bounce from the lows. Another evidence is a potential H&S pattern, which also suggest more weakness once/if we see a broken neckline. There are also many strong trendlines that can act as resistance here around 7k. So as long market is trading below 8500 region, we have to remain bearish.

Ideally we will see a continuation down soon, possibly towards projected 5k-4k area, maybe even a bottom in that zone early in 2019. However, for now we have to keep an eye on potential break below 6100 as this would be confirmation for more weakness.
 

Top ↑

Dax is trading lower or sideways I should say since 2018, and at the moment its in strong negative correlation with SP500 if we consider that US stocks are at ATH. But this divergence has been the case several times through the past few years so this is not any real big issue yet, but when global stocks do not agree or move the same it may be an evidence that market is maybe approaching a top that can be seen in years ahead.

However, before I may consider a top I have to see a completed pattern. But when looking at the trend from 8700 area I do not see five waves up yet, so it makes me think that reversal down from the January of this year is wave IV. This is a pause within ongoing trend, so I assume that fifth wave is still coming. The only question is, if this new leg up will come from a triangle or after deep A-B-C pullback in wave IV? In either case I think it’s worth to keep an eye for evidence of a bullish continuation, after A-B-C-D-E subwaves if 11700 holds, or from 11280 if mentioned swing is broken. Time is needed in both cases as corrective set-back is not done yet, but I remain bullish for 14000-15000 while market is above the lowest trendline of an 8-year old channel.

Trade well,
GH

Top ↑

Aug 31 2018

Do you know what is the most important as a trader? It’s to have your own bias, opinion, but at the same time to be “open minded” and be willing to listen the market and adjust the view whenever that’s needed.

My full time job is analysis, so trading is like a half-time job I would say, because I am not constantly risking my money. Analysis its very important for me, and I have to spent hours before I find some trade set-up, if there is any! Normally I analyze 80-90% of the time, and trade only 10%, so even trading requires a lot of work, no doubt!

As a trader, its important to consider both sides of the market, bull or bear, no matter what my analysis says, because we don’t know what market will actually do, so it’s good to be prepared rather than be surprised. With that being said, I am tracking EURUSD and USDCAD pairs for next week, but what is interesting is that I have EURUSD on my watchlist for possible longs on pullback, but at the same time also looking at USD for possible longs against CAD. I have no idea which one I will trade next week, but what I like about them is the price structure, but as always I have to be patient here before I make decision.

On EURUSD we can see a very nice five wave recovery from 1.1300 area into 1.1730/50 resistance where wave A can be done, so with that being said I am interested in longs but after wave B pullback. Corrective wave B usually retraces back to former wave four and at least for 38.2% so I definitely need to see pair trading around 1.1530/50 before I may consider longs. So nothing useful yet, but I have it on my radar screen.

EURUSD 4h Chart

Top ↑

Aug 30 2018

Hello traders!

Cable is turning down this year after a very big but overlapping recovery from 2016 lows, labeled now as completed red wave IV) because of a sharp decline out of an upward channel. However, price has recently found some support around 1.2770 from where we may see a new corrective rally labeled as wave II, which can make 600-700 pips pullback based on past price movements and ranges.
 

Top ↑

Aug 19 2018

Hello traders!

This month I have been talking and tracking EURUSD and GBPJPY a lot, and also made video analysis (CLICK HERE) and highlighted bearish patterns that I was observing. So far, market moved very nicely, into important levels so I decided to make a new video update.