Top ↑

Mar 24 2021

Pound is turning south since last week BOE meeting when they said that current policy is appropriate, and some speculations indicate that they may not raise rates until 2023. And then you also have vaccine supply issues which puts downward pressure on cable, while at the same time we see higher US yields making dollar strong.

From an Elliott Wave perspective cable was expected to come down as we recognized a triangle pattern in wave B, mentioned in VIDEO ANALYSIS last week. It's a continuation pattern that caused a new leg down, currently with a sharp and even accelerating drop into wave C). This leg can be headed to 1.3560/1.36 area while pair trades below 1.3880, especially if we consider that even latest strong PMI data cannot cause much of a recovery when looking at intraday price action. As such I think wave C) can stay in the cards for now, but it may again become very interesting for a new turn-around once a projected support is reached. Keep in mind that that whole drop from 1.4240 is still in three waves, thus it can be corrective wave 4 of a higher degree. But as always for any new change in trend we will have to wait on a five wave rise.

Top ↑

Mar 23 2021

Hello traders,

Below is new video analysis, covering aussie, gbpusd, usdjpy, usdchf, sp500 and nasdaq100


GH

Top ↑

Mar 22 2021

We have a few topics that will drive the markets this week. First is coming from Turkey after Erdogan has fired the central bank governor after they increased rates on Thursday. TRY lost 15% against the USD. Second important topic is all about vaccine and covid cases which are again increasing in EU, and this will probably lead to new lockdowns and restrictions early this week, so crude can see another dip or sideways price action.

From an Elliott Wave perspective the USDTRY is still seen in long-term uptrend that appears incomplete when looking at the weekly chart. Keep in mind that even if leg from 5.06 is final in a sequence we need five subwaves up within wave five which is not the case yet, so we think that even more upside can be seen in upcoming months, especially on speculations that Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may cut interest rates after recent Erdogan's action.




Also, keep an eye on USD and CNH this week after Russia's top diplomat starts China visit with call to reduce US dollar use. US will respond to that for sure so we may see some volatility on USDCNH pair which may leave AUDUSD in a sideways mode where I am observing incomplete fourth wave correction.

Top ↑

Mar 21 2021

Today we want to present you the chart of Bitcoin.
As you probably know, the famous cryptocurrency has been rallying lately as many large funds and even companies like Tesla bought massive quantities in the order of Billions of USD. Despite the relevant news, we like to stay focused on the technicals and look at Bitcoin through the lenses of the Elliott Wave Theory.

Our analyst noticed the move down from the February 21st high in three waves, and we know that “three waves a trend don’t make”, meaning that the move had to be corrective.

Eventually we started to see a nice and clear old-school pattern called Head and Shoulders pattern. In this particular event it could be called inverse head and shoulders since the trend was expected to resume higher and not lower.

Ideally price would look for a retest of what is call neckline of the H/S pattern before uptrend resumes, and gives even more confidence in a bullish outlook.

BTC March 10 chart:


The H/S came very handy in this scenario because it was bringing confluence to out initial bullish count, and also helped us to find an additional analytical method. In this scenario the left shoulder is represented by wave A, the head by wave C and the right shoulder by wave 2 as shown in the picture below:



We would usually expect a continuation to the upside once the neckline had been broken to consequentially complete the wave 3. It didn’t take much before this scenario became reality. Price recovered very nicely and even hit H&S projection target zone that was also highlighted by Grega in this free article

Updated chart:




So does the Elliott Wave work? Sure it does, because it's all about psychology behind the market's direction. So when something doe not work is not because of EW theory, but because of analyst that didn't correctly define the crowd cycle. Sometimes this is tricky, but sometimes can be much easier process when market moves and patterns are clear, so it's very important for our analysis to know what are good and what are bad market conditions; these above on BTC was classic, almost text-book example with combination of Elliott Wave and H&S.

If you want more updates and analysis on cryptocurrencies then make sure to check our Elliott Wave premium services here

Have a nice day.

Top ↑

Mar 19 2021

Hello traders,

Below is new Elliott Wave Analysis for GBPUSD and USDJPY

GH
 

Top ↑

Mar 16 2021

Hello traders,

Below is new Crypto video analysis for Bitcoin and Monero.

GH

Top ↑

Mar 15 2021
Crude oil is turning down despite after OPEC+ countries agreed to extend the majority of production cuts through April. We saw price spiked highe after that news and it is coming down now. However, we think this can be only a temporary retracement as we think that demand may increase as global lockdown restrictions can be removed slowly in upcoming weeks which may support oil prices.

Based on Elliott Wave principle we see ongoing impulsive recovery on crude oil which is now having only a temporary pause, seen in wave four that may retest the 60.00 support; a key technical level for a nex bounce if we consider the area of a former wave four and the very important 38.2% Fib.