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Reversal Patterns on EURUSD - New Weakness to Come?

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Apr 02 2013

Hi traders,

I hope you had some great time during the holiday break, but unfortunately it always ends too fast, but we are lucky that we love our job, right?

Before we go to charting today, let’s see what could happen on this market based on sentiment and psychology. Those who are following me on twitter will know that I highlighted on Thursday that holidays are approaching which is usually the reason for a change in trend because of portfolio adjustments and so on. At that time, we were expecting higher EURUSD, which was clearly the case in the last few trading days. The same was expected on S&P futures which also changed the direction few sessions back. Well, we need to keep in mind that in normal trading days, money will flow back into the market, so what this means is that primary trend, which was down on EUR and up on stocks could resume. With that in mind be aware of continuation of a trend that was ahead of holidays.

In fact, from a technical perspective we can see only three wave rise on EURUSD from the lows which is corrective movement that also reversed down from swings of wave four of a lesser degree. Pattern is bearish on the EURUSD which could fall beneath 1.2750 in this week. Resistance is at 1.2870-1.2940.

EURUSD 1h




Video-Where Is The EURUSD Headed Next?

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Mar 24 2013



S&P 500 Remains Bullish After A Corrective Retracement To 1537

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Mar 21 2013

S&P500 cash market gapped lower in this week, exactly after prices tested 1560-1570 resistance area for wave (iii) as highlighted several times to our members last week. As such, latest retracement should be wave (iv), which made three sub-waves down and found a support at very typical 38.2% Fibonacci support level compared to wave (iii). With that said, larger trend remains up as we need one leg up to complete a five wave rally from 1485 Feb 26 low. Ideally market is now trading higher in wave (v) headed through 1558 high which will open the door for a push up to 1578 projection, where wave (v) equals to wave (i).





AUDUSD Is Sideways But Still Bullish Within Larger Trend

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Mar 20 2013

Pair has reached 1.0375/1.0400 zone last week that we have been focusing on for some time with our clients, but based on the latest wave structure we could see even higher levels on this pair. The reason is the sub-structure in wave C, which is not in five waves yet so bulls could lift the pair to 1.0430 while pair trades above 1.0330 critical level. The next thing is that latest price action in 1.0340-1.0400 range is sideways which is personality of a corrective movement so we suspect it's fourth wave triangle with break higher yet to come into fifth. Critical level remains at 1.0335, because wave four must not trade into a territory of a wave one.



USDCHF Is Looking Bearish Towards 0.9300 Against 0.9566

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Mar 19 2013

USDCHF reversed sharply lower in the past week from 0.9566 peak and also closed on a daily and weekly basis beneath 0.9430 swing. In fact, move from 0.9566 was very sharp so we believe it's only first leg of a minimum three wave decline, labeled as A)-B)-C). Ideally pair is now in wave B) with resistance seen around 0.9500. Breakdown into wave C) towards 0.9340 is expected as long as 0.9566 is in place.

Sentiment table
Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Sideways
03/18 We favour shorts as long as 0.9566 critical level holds.











USDJPY Update

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Mar 18 2013
  • Rise Above 95.45/95.70 Puts Pair Back In Bullish Mode
Despite a big gap down on USDJPY pair remains in bullish mode as decline is actually still in three waves which we think it's wave (iv). Notice that wave (iv) is actually testing some interesting levels around 04.30, where we can see an upper line of a base channel as well as 38.2% retracement level compared to wave (iii). With that said, pair could continue higher in this week, but we need to keep a close eye on 95.45/95.70 level. An overlap will confirm the bullish case. Why? Because in such case decline from the top would be a completed three wave fall which is a corrective structure.





USDCAD: Impulsive Trend Could Resume From 1.0200

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Mar 10 2013

USDCAD is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, which was expected after wave B) pull-back down to 0.9800 support at the end of 2012. We know that after completed correction the market will make an impulsive price action, and that is exactly what we are tracking now in wave C); five wave rally in wave C), which is still incomplete. For now we have only three waves up to 1.0340 so more gains to come after current wave 4 pull-back that could test 1.0200 level next week, before uptrend resumes. Critical level is at 1.0100. Why? Because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one.

Sentiment table
Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up Wait on deeper fourth wave pull-back 1.0200 and then look for longs.








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