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30 Year US Bonds-Bearish Wave Pattern


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July 05 2013

30year US bonds are showing bearish pattern ahead of US NFP report. Can this be signal for good numbers today? If yes, then US bond prices will most likely fall on speculations that FED could start "tapering" QE later this year which would be supportive for USD based on latest correlations from latest FOMC meeting held on June 19th. In such case EUR could suffer the most because its the weakest right now.

USDJPY: Corrective Rally Approaching Resistance at 101-102


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July 03 2013

USDPY is trading higher and now forming much sharper and extended pull-back from 93.78 than previously thought. However, rise is still in three waves with wave C now approaching to important resistance area at 101.50-102.00 where we can see 78.6% retracement of wave A)/1) and as well as wave A=C level. As such, that’s very important zone for a possible turning point. But only impulse sell-off from here and back to 99.00 will confirm our bearish bias.

EURUSD: You Must See These Charts!!


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June 24 2013

Traders, please check our next video on EURUSD and why we think that pair may fall much lower in the next few days and even weeks.

EURUSD: Bearish Reversal In Progress-More Weakness In View


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June 24 2013

On EURUSD we can count three waves up from 1.2750 low which we believe it represents a corrective, contra-trend price action within a larger downtrend. We are talking about blue wave (2) which is now showing signs of completion around 1.3420 level after sharp decline last week which is impulsive move. As such, we expect further weakness in coming days and weeks, ideally back to April low.

Lower Stocks, Higher USD..Finally!


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June 20 2013

European stock market is sharply lower today following yesterday sell-off on US equities after Ben Bernanke who said yesterday that if the economy continues to improve, it could start to wind down its $85 billion a month asset-purchasing program towards the end of 2013 and end it in 2014.

Metals are moving sharply lower, with gold testing now psychological level at $1300 and silver $20. We could see some technical bounce from here especially if we also consider Elliott Wave pattern which suggests that price is at the end of wave iii), now testing 261.8% Fibonacci support. As I know a lot of our clients were shorting gold since June 10. If you are one of them, then I suggest you to close some % and make very tight stops.


E-mini S&P500 is also looking weak since yesterday where we can count now five waves down from latest high. This is impulse that confirms the change in trend; from bullish to bearish mode.

E-mini S&P500 1h

EURUSD also extended its decline at the European open, which means that correlation between EURUSD and stocks are normal for now. USD is safe-haven in risk-off mode so normally traders will be interested in Long USD opportunities.

Market Correlations 1h

GBP/USD Could Reverse Into A Deeper Pull-back, towards 1.5480


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June 18 2013

On cable we can count five waves up in wave A) from 1.5000 psychological level which means that temporary high for this pair could be in place if we consider a broken trend and Elliott Wave theory which suggests that after every five waves correction follows. With that said, a coming retracement could be red wave B) that is part of an incomplete second zig-zag in wave II. If wave B) is already unoflding then keep an eye on 1.5480 support zone.

EURUSD At Temporary Resistance


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June 12 2013

USD extended its losses since yesterday when the US stock market turned sharply lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down three days in a row for the first time this year. Correlation between the markets remains unchanged; USDJPY and other XXX/JPY pairs are tracking stock market, while EURUSD and other XXX/USD pairs are moving in opposite direction. As such, EURUSD is at its highs, now testing 1.3380 area.

From a technical perspective, we see all XXX/USD pairs in fifth waves of 3 and we know that after every five waves trend will change, even if just temporary. Below I have a basic structure of a five wave rally on which I marked a current position on EURUSD . I see it at the end of wave three so pull-back is expected.

Basic five wave rally


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On charts above I see it at the end of wave three so pull-back is expected. So what this tells us? Well, I think a lot; first if you are long you could be out of the market here, or if you want to get in and ride the EURUSD trend then it’s probably better to wait on correction. Then it also tells you a lot about the other markets. If correlations will remain as they are and if EURUSD will turn lower from 1.3380/1.3400 resistance then stocks will probably find a support that will cause some rally on xxx/JPY pairs as well.

Market correlation 1h

Bottom line; be aware of a trend reversal in the near-term; don’t chase here!

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