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Corrections on Aud/Usd and S&P Near Completion

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Aug 16 2011

Today should be a quite interesting day with traders focusing on the German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy meeting in Paris; who will attempt to ease market concerns about Eurozone debt troubles.

Why we also think that trading could be interesting is a technical outlook of the S&P Futures count, where a corrective recovery is running out of time. We should see a resolution very soon, which we believe it will be on the downside. We will keep an eye on a possible impulsive reversal from the top, which should send the US dollar higher after-that. In such case commodity currencies, such as Aud, Cad and NZD should weaken against the buck.

Looking at the euro, the overall price action is still very tricky there, but we may see some weakness coming, after German GDP for the first quarter was weaker than expected; 0.1% vs. 05%.

S&P Futures and Aud/usd technical outlook:

Recovery from the lows cannot be counted in five waves, so move is considered as a corrective, part of incomplete downtrend.



Aud/Usd has a very tight correlation with S&P Futures, which in fact also shows signs of a corrective recovery from its low. An impulsive reaction towards or below 1.03 will suggests that correction is done and that market is ready to move much lower.




Gold: Correction Coming

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Aug 14 2011

Gold reached a new all-time high in this past week, above $1800 per ounce from where we saw almost $100 sell-off till the end of the week. Well, based on the wave structure and substructure (4h chart) of a parabolic rise we would really not be surprised to see further weakness in the coming days, but only temporary as we look for a wave 4 pull-back.

For those who want to join this rally should wait on the solid corrective pull-back first! Now it could be too late.




Aud/Usd Moves Into A Correction

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Aug 9 2011

Aud/Usd collapsed below 1.0 psychological level, but reversal from the lows is even more significant. As such, we suspect that wave 3 has bottomed and that larger corrective recovery is underway, labelled as a wave 4. If that's the case, then this reversal is still far away from a completion, as we need to see three legs; (a)-(b) and (c), before we may look for more weakness on this pair.

Resistance that we should pay attention on is around 1.04!

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Gold and Swiss Franc Should Rally After the S&P Downgraded US Credit Rating

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Aug 07 2011

Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S.'s sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Friday after the market close. There are a lot of speculations how the markets will react, which should be US dollar negative. Now, the question is where the money will go!? We believe it will be nothing different compared to what we saw in the past week. Swiss franc and gold should rally as safe-haven investments! The Japanese yen will also not be an exception, but gains on that one may quickly slow down because of possible intervention speculations.

Some one would also have think on commodity currencies, such as Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, but because of very tight correlations to commodity and stock markets that are falling; we don't think that those currencies will be a good choice however! Technicals are also showing negative trend on those, so its better to avoid them at this point.

G-7 will meet up today through the conference call, and will discuss about Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and a cut in the US credit rating. But what they will really try to do here is to calm down the markets and move investors away from a potential "fear factor", which will not last long however.

If you want to trade during Asian hours, you will have to be very nimble. We are staying aside for now.

Back with you as European market opens.

Trade well!


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What Is A Confirming Price Action!?

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July 26 2011

Below you will find an educational video in which we discuss about "Confirming Price Action". What is confirmation of a trend and how to combine that with Elliott Wave theory.


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Usd/Chf Down to 0.75

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Aug 06 2011

Usd/Chf extended its losses in the past week as expected and reached new all-time lows just above 161.8% Fibonacci extension target for wave 3. Not sure if wave 3 is done or not, but long-term speaking we remain very bearish on that pair, and any bounce from the lows will be only temporary and corrective, likely a black wave 4 before now sell-off occurs.



Bellow is the chart that our readers received on July 30th 2011, with a note that pair is headed towards 0.75.

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Gold Intra-day: Prices Targeting 1680

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Aug 04 2011

On gold we are looking at the updated wave count that shows incomplete structure in wave (v). We know that wave five is a motive wave, which means it must be structured by five smaller waves. Well, a recent rise from 1616 is very strong, shows personality of a sub-wave three since prices broke through the upper base channel resistance line. In fact, a slow price action around the top looks corrective, so its likely a wave iv) with another push higher yet to come, which will be a fifth wave, targeting 1680.

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