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Elliott Waves: Stock Market On The Rise; But Be Aware of Pullbacks


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Feb 22 2019

Hi traders,
S&P500 has been trading in a corrective decline since September of 2018, and it unfolded a three-wave drop within higher degree wave IV). We can see that wave IV) found a base at the 2324 level, from where a new impulsive recovery is unfolding; its known as a continuation of an uptrend, so we assume that new all-time highs can be coming. However, nothing moves in straight line, so be aware of a pullbacks and ideally current rise will look for a temporary limited upside near the 2813 level, where former swing high can react as resistance. Nice support for any reversal lower can be around 2600/2650.

S&P500, Daily

German DAX is trading similar as the S&P500, now ideally unfolding a minimum recovery in three-waves from the 10282 level; move that can resume towards 11700 as first upward objective and then to 12k. Nice support for DAX on any deeper pullbacks can be around the 10800.

German DAX, Daily


Elliott wave Analysis: USDCAD and Crude OIL Connection


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Feb 14 2019

USDCAD turned down very aggressively in January, but then turned sideways so it appears that some tricky price structure can be unfolding here. Well, we are observing a complex correction, ideally a flat which is now unfolding its final leg C up that can look for resistance at previous wave A swing high; at 1.337 level. From there we should be aware a turn into stronger CAD, and potential drop down into wave C) back to February lows.


If you are trading USDCAD then you should be watching oil prices too. Keep in mind that higher oil prices are bearish for USDCAD. In fact, on oil we see ongoing recovery on a daily chart with more upside coming after wave B set-back is finished. And that’s the time when USDCAD may finally turn down very aggressively.

Crude oil, daily

Below we also have a chart of the negative correlation between Crude oil and USDCAD.


EURNZD Longs If Stocks Hits Resistance?!


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Feb 07 2019

As commodities currencies turns down this week I think it's time to look at some of the crosses. I will look at EURNZD in particular as this one has a very clear path; five waves up from December 2018 low and then deep pullback which now appears completed at 1.6510 because of sharp rise out of the channel. We think more upside can be coming as current rally is looking impulsive, but as always we need pullback!

Another thing about possibly higher EURNZD is penitential turn down on stocks. Keep in mind that E-mini S&P500 is at resistance, so deeper pullback can be coming which may support EURNZD even more as longs on this one is risk-off play.

Please check video for more details:

Trade well, GH


Will 5th Wave Limit Upside For Gold?


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Jan 29 2019

No doubt, gold is bullish, unfolding five waves from the 1211 level as part of a bigger recovery. We can see that recently price found a base for corrective wave 4 at the 1277 level from where a sharp and strong leg up is currently unfolding. This strong move can be labelled as final sub-wave 5) in progress, which can look for resistance near the 1310/1320 area; it's a Fibonacci extension of 1.618% of wave four and also the upper Elliott wave channel line in that area, that can slow down the bullish trend.

Keep in mind that after every five waves market may retrace in three legs minimum, so don't be surprised if FOMC Press Conference and US NFP numbers will cause a turn.

A drop and daily close below 1300 would signal that a top has been found and that deeper pullback is coming.

For now, it's good to be patient here as I see metal ''too high to be long, and too soon to be short.''

Trade well, GH


Stocks heading higher; Can Bitcoin and friends follow?!


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Jan 16 2019

Bitcoin is becoming very interesting after that clear five-wave rally from 3100 lows into a wave A/1 and clear three-wave a-b-c corrective structure in wave B/2, which leads into a nice inverted H&S pattern, so we could have a perfect bullish setup and a potential rally for wave C/3. Just keep in mind that bulls can be confirmed only above 4100 region. Invalidation level remains at 3100.
We have seen a lot of periods when stocks and Cryptos were trading together. Question is, if BITCOIN is lagging and if NASDAQ suggests higher prices for Cryptos too. We see stocks turning up impulsively, so higher Crypto should not be surprise. Stock market rally, specifically NASDAQ100 could easily lift Bitcoin and friends higher since we see a tight correlation between stock and Crypto market.

BTCUSD and BTCUSD vs Nasdaq, 4h


More Upside For AUD and NZD vs USD


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Jan 10 2019

Some commodity currencies have been very bearish towards the end of 2018 and at the start of the January when Aussie fell beneath 2016 lows before it turned up. AUD has been one of the worst performers last year, but even this “weak” currency, so to speak, is showing evidence of a low after that spike down to 0.6700 area. Notice that pair might have accomplished a five wave decline down from last year high so a reversal higher can be in the cards now for a three leg rally back to 0.7400-0.7450 area.


Well, my attention at the moment is not on AUDUSD, but rather on currency that was relatively stable and doing well recently. It’s NZDUSD, which in fact has made five waves up from October 2018 low; that’s a very strong bounce that indicates more upside after pullbacks. Well, we have seen a nice pullback down to 0.6600 area where 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci levels already caused some buying, but much more upside can be in the cards if we consider that wave C) has room for a push up to 0.7140 based on equal leg projection. That been said, my idea is to watch the short-term set-backs here and trying to catch the move higher.

I you like my Elliott Wave analysis, then I welcome you to check our service and maybe take a trial to see an analysis in real-time.



10 year US note at resistance, SP500 at Support?


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Dec 19 2018

Below is the chart that can be very important for stocks as we approach the year-end. It's 10 year US note vs SP500. A turn down on 10 year US notes from 121 (where wave four flat may come to an end) may cause a bounce on stocks. Also, SP500 is at very interesting Feb 2018 level.

S&P500 vs 10Year US notes

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