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Eur/Usd Sold-off. Did you catch it!?

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Feb 13 2011

Hello traders!

Eur/Usd moved sharply lower in this past week, after the prices reversed significantly in the middle of the week from 1.3740 region. If you know how Elliott Wave theory works, then you may have caught that move once the pair reversed and formed an impulsive fall exactly from 61.8% retracement area, which is the most common Fibonacci reversal zone of second wave, and B leg as well.

We are patient traders, and pulled the trigger once the lower support line of a corrective channel was broken, and closed one part of a position at 1.3580, one 1.3515 and free run for a final part. But before we sent out a trading opportunity signal to our members we recorded a video with a plan, which is always the most important part of trading. Always be prepared for the move and keep in mind the alternate scenario!

Eur/Usd video (published on Feb 09 2011)


How to Use Channels In Elliott Wave Theory

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Dollar Index: Weekly Spike Reversal

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Feb 06

After a significant five wave reversal on dollar index intra-day chart from 76.85 region, we decided to look on the weekly chart, which is showing a very bullish set-up for the weeks ahead. You will notice a trend line connected from early 2008 which holds dollar index up for almost 3 years now. In fact, each time the prices moved close to a trend line, a weekly spike occurred, which then sent the US dollar higher. May this scenario repeat!?

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Video: Dollar Index outlook ahead the NFP

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Feb 04 2011

US dollar reversed yesterday from 76.86 region, where a five wave decline from the 81.32 highs may have already found the bottom. The most important fact is that prices moved above the upper resistance line of a trading channel, which usually signals for a change in trend. As such, further upside will not be a surprise, and a potential break above 78.32 region will confirm a temporary bullish scenario of the US dollar.

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Elliott Wave Video: Eur/Aud, Hang Seng Index

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Feb 02 2011

Euro is showing a very strong picture across the board, already since start of January. This currency is also showing a significant recovery against the Australian dollar, which is quite interesting if we consider that Euro was one of the weakest while the Australian dollar was one of the strongest currencies in 2010. In video bellow Grega Horvat will present you a detailed outlook of a current situation on Eur/Aud and what to expect in the near future, and on which levels we should pay attention on.

He will also make a quick outlook of the Hang Seng Index.

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Oil Prices Ready To break Above $93

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Feb 02 2011

Oil prices reached new lows of the session recently but on a very thin volume, with price remain trapped in a downward corrective channel. In fact, a decline looks quite choppy and slow and as such we favor a bullish continuation once a possible double zig-zag correction completes. Key level for bullish acceleration comes in around 92/92.40!

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How to Use Channels In Elliott Wave Theory

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Dec 29 2010

In this time of the year, a lot of traders are away from their trading desks as markets can be very tricky and hard to predict. As such, we at www.ew-forecast.com decided to record an educational video which may help to a lot of traders, especially those who are using an Elliott Wave Principle.

In today’s video we will show you how channels can help you to identify a direction and strength of a market moves, combined with Elliott Wave technique. The most important question in Elliott Theory is: “Is this only a corrective retracement (correction) or start of a new trend (impulse)?! Well, channeling method presented in the video can definitely help you with that, which will also be used on Aud/Usd pair.

VIDEO:


VIX Testing Levels From 2008

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Jan 27 2011

Below we can see VIX chart. This is a volatility index of the S&P500; actually measures an “investor’s fear” in current market conditions. The greater the fear is, the higher the VIX level will be. If the fear decreasing in the market than you will see VIX falling; like in our case. The results of course, are higher stock prices; higher S&P500. VIX is at very low price right now, and S&P 500 is very high, so we can say that trade is “overcrowded”, because there is no fear in the market and a lot of investors are buying it. But as you know, usually when something is overcrowded the opposite reaction follows. In our case this would be on the upside.

From a technical perspective, we can see a triangle on VIX chart before market fell into a new low. But since the VIX is in a downtrend we know that triangle can be placed only in wave 4, because triangle can never appear in wave 2.

And here is the next important fact from an Elliott Wave perspective: “triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern”. So, wave 5 must be a final move as shown on our chart, which means that reversal from the lows should follow in the near term; at least into a higher correction, because after every five waves temporary change in trend occurs!

So, if we are on the right track here, then top on the S&P500 is also near. Market is currently testing 1300 psychological level…



In 2008, before the stock market collapsed VIX hit the lows around 16.



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