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December 06 2016

Hello traders!
Below I will walk you through my analysis on German DAX. Actually I will show you my approach to the markets; how I analyze markets and predict next possible leg in combination with trendlines.

Have a good day, Grega!

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December 04 2016

Hey traders!
We have seen a nice move up on oil last week, up more than 15% which was the biggest weekly gain since the 2011 following the OPEC deal to cut crude output. It was a nice move up, now towards $52 per barrel, which looks like an important technical level based on past price moves, but current move has momentum so resistance can be broken which may lift price to much higher levels, ideally towards $60 in weeks ahead. So if you trade oil directly through futures or cfd’s then you may want to keep an eye for short-term buying opportunities on pullbacks. But if you are more of an FX trader, then you will want look for CAD or NOK. Personally I have my eyes on the USDCAD for possible shorts on intraday pullbacks next week, as big recovery from 2016 lows can come to an end. It’s a clear three wave move that signals for a strong bearish reaction in the future. Well, some CAD crosses can be even more interesting if we consider that USD index still hold strong gains in an uptrend.

Have a good trading week,
Grega
 

 

 

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This week I received an email from a client yesterday, asking me if I can post analysis on VIX (CBOE MARKET VOLATILITY). It's an important market that gives you an idea how much fear is involved during volatile markets, especially when stocks are trading down like for the last few few weeks. Well, what is interesting to me is that this stock market is selling off sharply ahead of an important US elections, but event like this can be a trend changer. In other words, they can cause some reversals since I believe that flows will change. Simply put, investors will adjust their positons which may have an impact on price moves. So if trend will change on stocks, then this will be from bearish to bullish mode.

Those who follows me closely will know that I am tracking final stages of a corrective retracement on S&P500 from August highs. It’s a three-wave decline at the moment, so technically I would be expecting a bounce towards the end of the year. And if I look on daily chart of VIX (CBOE MARKET VOLATILITY), then we can also say that price is in final stages of a current corrective structure, thus it also suggests a turn down, ideally from around 22-25 area. Pattern on VIX tells me that next important leg will be lower which is obviously matching with our count on stocks. Also, lets also not forget to mention an important trendline resistance on VIX, connected from 2016 highs.
Grega

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