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Hi traders,

As you know, 10Y US treasury notes usually indicates the direction of XXX/JPY cross pairs, as it can be easily seen in these overlay charts with USDJPY and AUDJPY. Since 10Y US notes turned sharply down, we have seen a nice recovery on XXX/JPY crosses and if we expect more weakness on 10y US notes, then XXX/JPY crosses may stay under bullish pressure, but before a continuation, we may see a small corrective movement.

10 Year US Notes vs AUDJPY


10 Year US Notes vs USDJPY


AUDJPY can be trading in a bigger, complex correction since February of 2019, which we recognized it as a triangle pattern. A triangle is a five legged move, that can either be contracting or expanding. It is also a continuation pattern, that points into a new leg once it fully unfolds, that means into the direction of the trend (in our case this is to the upside). At the moment we see leg E) of a triangle unfolding, so be aware of a three-wave drop, towards the 78.0/77.96 area in upcoming days.

AUDJPY, 4h



Now switching to the 10 Year US Notes we can see price unfolding a three-wave retracement from the lows, which can look for resistance around the 124'0/124'16 region. At the mentioned region, various Fibonacci ratios (0.382/0.618) can react as reversal zones. That being said, AUDJPY and 10 Year US Notes are negatively correlated, so once 10 Year starts dropping, after a three-wave correction, that is when we would expect AUDJPY to find a support.

10 Year US Notes, 1h

 

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Hi traders,

AUDNZD can be unfolding a bigger, three-wave recovery with first two legs; A and B already completed. The sharp rally which followed from the 1.0250 area can now be labelled as wave C, that can take price with its five-wave structure towards the 1.0750/1.0800 region in upcoming weeks and months. That said, be aware of temporary retracement that may represent a pause within a wave C rise; first one can follow from the 1.052/1.053 zone.

AUDNZD, Daily


 

 

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Hi traders,

Gold has recovered in March but notice that structure is slow, choppy and overlapping which looks like a correction. Thats either wave B or even wave 2, but in both cases we expect a continuation lower into wave 3 or C that should take price of gold below 1275. In fact, this decline may resume in the next couple of days, especially if current weakness down from recent swing high will cause a decisive break below the corrective channel support line which would be an important evidence for a completed wave B/2. We stay bearish on gold as long as market is below February highs.

Trade well,

 

GH

 

 

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Hello everyone.

This week can be very interesting and important for the EURUSD as pair firstly moved nicely higher last week, but then turned south through Thursday and Monday sessions. Question is fi current bounce will resume, or is downward wedge going to continue?

Well, I am tracking two counts from the Elliott Wave perspective, but what is interesting the most between these two is that both suggests limited downside. First one is showing idea of a flat with wave B completed so wave C up may continue. A rise above 1.1450 from here will probably confirm this one.

But if from any reason prices breaks to new low of the year, then I am sure there will be again a lot of sellers but likely again on the wrong side as bounce may follow based on our second interpretations which shows idea of an ending diagonal in fifth wave.

Which one will be the case? I am not sure at the moment, but what I know is that if pair will starting to see a new recovery above 1.1400 or higher then I would really be interested in long set-ups.

Trade well,

 

GH

 

 

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Hello traders,

Finally, I am back from New York traders expo show. Spent some very good time there, learned a lot, met some very good traders and even clients of ours. I also made an episode for USDMXN and Copper at Real Vision TV, so if you have access there make sure to check this out. But I am back know, doing what I love the most; analyzing the market and decided to make this video free to everyone.

Trade well, Grega

 

 

 

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Hi traders,
Stocks, specifically S&P500 is turning back to a bullish mode since we have noticed a five-wave rise back to 2800 resistance area. At the same time, even positively correlated market Crude oil remains in a bullish shape, probably within an ending diagonal for wave 5/5), which means that risk-on is still in play.

Crude oil, 4h chart


If we consider weak USD and strong Crude oil, then the best opportunity can be on USDMXN pair. And, as you can see USDMXN is falling sharply and just like Crude oil, also for wave 5, so be aware of more weakness towards new lows, while stocks and Crude oil are trading bullish.

USDMXN, 4h chart