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After a long time I looked at the wave count of 10 year US notes to confirm my view on stocks. For those who are following my analysis, particularly on Twitter, will know that I am bullish on equities. After-all, how can someone be bearish if market is trading near all-time highs!? Anyway, some major global indexes turned nicely up in the last 24 hours, so if this trend will continue then US treasuries should fall as yields rise. Well, I checked the wave structure on 10-year US notes and see nice and clear bearish pattern in progress with an impulsive personality. Latest bounce appears to be only a contra-trend reaction, labeled as wave four which suggests more weakness in sessions ahead. If that is correct then S&P500 should stay bullish.

In fact S&P500 rallied with five waves from yesterday lows (charts available to members only) so more upside should be seen in sessions ahead. Ideally any decline will be short-term only as part of an uptrend.

Trade well,
Grega
 

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Oct 30 2015

EURUSD fell again on Wednesday after recent consolidation to 1.1090 that we labeled it as wave 4. After that we have seen wave 5 down now that hit 261.8% extension of wave 1 measured from wave 2, so it means that support can be near. We can already see some recovery back to 1.1000 so ideally correction is now in play towards1.1100-1.1150 resistance area, from where new leg down may occur at the start of November.

#We knew that EUR weakness is coming already already at the start of October. We highlighted this also in our video analysis on Oct 14th in which we covered USDCHF as well. CLICK HERE

EURUSD, 4H

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Oct 28 2015

On the intraday chart of the S&P500 Futures contract we see a nice and slow pullback which has a corrective personality so it confirms the fact that retracement is just temporary and part of incomplete uptrend. We see it as a blue wave (iv), which will typically retrace back to the area of a former wave four and for 38.2% compared to wave three. In our case we can see this interesting zone coming in at 2050-2053 so ideally price will bounce higher from here. We think that uptrend will continue to 2085 soon.

S&P500, 1H