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Aud/Usd Ready To Gain Above Parity!?


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Dec 17

The whole price structure on Aud/Usd looks very bullish since the market formed a three wave corrective decline from November highs, followed by a five wave reversal labelled as a red wave 1), which definitely confirms a bullish trend. For the last couple of days the pair was consolidating between 0.9800 region and parity level, and it appears to be a flat correction in wave 2), with a recent wave C move down to 0.9828 region. If our interpretation is correct then bulls should follow immediately with a break through an important 1.0028 resistance, where gains should accelerate into a red wave 3).

On the other hand, we are also monitoring an alternate count, which shows that a move from 0.9535 low was in three waves, labelled as a red wave B), which could be part of a complex, huge unfinished blue wave (4) correction! We may switch to this count only if pair falls sharply below 0.9750 support while 1.0028 is in place.

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Aud/Usd 4h chart

Elliott Wave: Eur/usd and S & P500


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Dec 22 2010

S&P500 is trading higher and higher reaching new high almost in every trading session. However, from an Elliott wave perspective uptrend may slow down in the near future, since price are already trading in a fifth wave, final leg of an impulse structure shown from 1173 lows. We know that at least correction follows after a five wave move is done! In fact, we can also see that bulls are losing strength, confirmed by a bearish divergence on the RSI, which is very common in fifth waves! First important target/resistance region of a current wave 5) is at 1260, followed by a 1280 region if move from 1231 extends.

As we know, the FX market is not following the stock market for some time now. Usually you would expect higher Eur/Usd if S&P trades higher and vice-versa. On the S&P Futures/EurUsd overlay chart we can see that poor correlation is the case already since mid November, after the Eur/Usd reversed from its 1.4280 highs. Now, the question is, will the euro find the base and will join to higher S&P? Or, will the S&P reverse from its highs and push the US dollar even higher against the majors?

Well, we favor even higher US dollar and S&P reversal yet to come, simply because of the wave count we showed you above.

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DAX Gains Will Slow Down in Start Of 2011


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Dec 27 2010

Traders who are positioned Long on DAX or any other major indices, may look to start booking profits, as index is trading in a wave (5) and approaching its 7140-7180 target/resistance zone. This its a final sub-wave of a five wave rally shown from 5327 August 2010 lows, so any gains will likely slow down very soon, which is also confirmed by a bearish divergence on the RSI which shows that bulls are already loosing strength. In Elliott wave theory a turning point, at least corrective follows after every five wave rally. In fact, we anticipate some more important, larger turning point in 2011 from the highs, since we believe that gains from August 2010 is a wave C rally, part of a corrective structure that started already in March 2009.

With this being said, investors should look for safe investments such as Japanese yen and US dollar, a currency that should get even stronger against the weakest performer in 2010, the Eur!

DAX daily chart:

Aud/Usd Uptrend Continuation


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Jan 03 2011

Article below is update from article posted on December 5th 2010 click here

Aud/Usd is trading nicely higher, already since start of December 2010 when pair bounced from the 0.9828 support where a corrective wave 2) has finished. With this being said, on a 4h chart pair should now be trading in a red wave 3), sub-wave of a blue wave (5) from a daily chart, which will likely reach even higher levels, while the market trades above 0.9966 zone and support channel line. Any small consolidation phase will be just a corrective black wave 4, before Australian dollar moves even higher.

Long trading opportunities should still appear on Aud/Usd pair, especially if gold and US stocks will continue to the upside, which are the main drivers of this pair.

4h chart:

Daily chart below shows a potential targets around 1.0600 region.

Aud/Usd: Coming Weakness


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Jan 20 2011

Aud/Usd reversed very nicely from the 1.0070 resistance region, exactly after the market tested 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. Upward bounce from 0.9802 was clearly made in three wave formation, and current sharp 140 pips of decline suggests that top of a black wave 2/B is in.

As such, traders should now focus on more bears ahead, towards and below 0.9800 region, since we are expecting an impulsive decline down into a wave 3/C leg. Once 0.9802 region is out, losses may easily accelerate down to 0.9640 region, where a distance of wave 3/C equals to wave 1/A .

Wave count and expectations remains valid as long as the market trades below 1.0070.

The main driver of Aud/Usd weakness from 1.0070 region are lower commodity prices and sell-off seen yesterday on the US stock market. On the chart below you can see a very tight correlation between the S&P futures and Aud/Usd, since the market reversed from the recent highs.

After the yesterday’s weakness on the stock market, further decline in the near-term will likely follow, a move that should drive the Aud/Usd even lower!

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