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The Elliott Wave Look Of Crude Oil

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April 27 2020
 
Since 2019, I have been tracking a very bearish and incomplete Elliott Wave pattern on crude weekly and monthly charts. We saw room for a decline down from $65-$70 resistance towards $20 per barrel as recovery from 2016 low has clearly been acting as a correction. A drop has come true much quicker than we thought which is a good thing as it means that new opportunities for investors may not be far away. We see a price decline to 1998 levels ideally with fifth wave that can be final part of a corrective A-B-C structure from 2008 highs. We have all needed sub-waves to complete this downtrend soon, the only thing that is still missing is a bounce in five waves on a lower time frame to confirm a potential reversal, even if just temporary. A rise in five waves back above $27 will indicate further upside, possibly towards the upper side of a trading channel, near $50.

Trade well,

Grega

Crude oil, monthly



Holiday Schedule And "World-Reset" That We Needed

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April 12 2020
 

Holidays (for those who are celebrating) are different this time due to global coronavirus lockdown. Plenty of people around the world are away from their families and friends, so its important to stay positive, patient and persistent, all for a better tomorrow.

Maybe, the world needed this slow-down, a World-reset is how I would call it. If I look back, everyone was in a hurry before, no-one didnt actually slow-down, look around and pay attention and appreciate the little things, which are actually the big things; such as love, time for others, time for ourselves. We were trapped in a daily routine of a fast life, full of material stuff and pushed away from real life because of social media.

We all have to realise that we dont need much for happiness; as long we have each other, the food on the table and health all is good. I can finally spend time with my kids, more than ever before. Its funny and sad at the same time, that we all live in same house and that something like coronavirus must happen to finally take time for our family, and not to be distracted by daily hectic pace of life.
I think that once coronavirus and lockdown will pass, we will look at the life from a different and much better perspective.

Stay safe

Grega

p.s. no market updates tomorrow, we will be back on Tuesday April 14th.

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Inverted Head and Shoulder on USDCAD Indicates Further Gains Towards 1.51/1.53

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Mar 26 2020
 
Hello everyone.

USDCAD made an inverse head and shoulder formation from 2015 high, a powerful pattern, which can signal a new bullish recovery. We see a completed pattern at the 1.2955 level, from where bullish movement took over. The price also breached above the 1.3666 level, where a trend line is located, also known as a neckline. This breach is a confirmation that a bullish reversal is in full motion and can take price towards the price target at the 1.51/1.53 in weeks or months ahead

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USDCAD, weekly



H&S pattern can sometimes go perfectly with Elliott Wave cycles. Well, on the 4h chart of USDCAD we see higher highs and higher swing lows with an extended structure in the middle so looks like an impulse is underway, ideally above 2016 high. If that’s the case that continuation of an uptrend can be coming soon as current reversal lower can wave four correction. Nice support comes in around 1.4 psychological level. If price can rally from here and break upper corrective channel line then watch out for 1.5 with upcoming fifth wave.

Also, when trading Lonnie watch crude oil prices as well. These are still in downtrend so CAD remains under pressure, but more about this one in one of our next articles.


USDCAD, 4h


Trade well,
Grega

@ewforecast
www.ew-forecast.com

 

BTCUSD Price Can Stabilize As Volatility Calms Down

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Mar 23 2020
 
Hey traders,

Today I will look at BTC volatility and compared it to similar developments back in 2018, when BTC bottomed once volatility slowed down. If that is the case then I think that start of April can be very interesting.

Check the video below!

We realize that markets are very volatile and unstable these days. That is why we decided to give out a Special Discount to New and OLD members; Save 50% on Any FX or Digital Package.

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Trade Well,
GH

BITCOIN; Buyers Are Waitting

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Mar 17 2020
 
Hello everyone,

Stock market decline pushed BTC and the whole Crypto market down due to panic and fear across the world. Very ugly and nasty move is visible through different assets, but it looks like an interesting decline that can even finish with a spike at the potential support if coronavirus will start slowing down. However, in case if situation worsens that we should be aware of even more weakness, and then we have to prepared on BTC to retest the 2018 lows.

Looking at the weekly BTCUSD chart, as our count #1, we are neutral and we are observing a big bullish triangle formation, where the recent three-wave A-B-C decline can be just as part of wave (C), so waves (D) and (E) yet to come. For a bullish triangle price needs to stay above 3000 invalidation level, and at the same time we need FIVE-WAVE recovery on a smaller time frame with a move back to $7k. So because that's not the case yet, we have to aware of another interpration; a flat correction where price is allowed to drop to $2000-$1000 support area.

Anyway, in both cases we believe that BTCUSD is in a big consolidation, and that sooner or later buyers will again show up, but maybe from lower prices. The most important is now to be patient and not rushing with any early buying idea. We think that even if market will bounce from here, there will still be a lot of opportunities ahead within ongoing move.


We realize that markets are very volatile and unstable these days. That’s why we decided to give out a Special Discount to New and OLD members; Save 50% on Any FX or Digital Package.

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Trade Well,
GH

BTCUSD COUNT #1


BTC COUNT #2




 

USD Index Recovering - Elliott wave analysis

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Mar 16 2020
 
Hello traders,

Dollar index made a five-wave recovery within a higher degree wave A) from end of 2017, which was then in 2019 followed by a three-wave complex pullback into a wave B). This pullback is known as a *flat correction, a 3-3-5 pattern, which has found support slightly above the 94.5 area last week, despite emergency cut by the FED. Looks like that reason for current rise is because investors are looking for safety in cash. Actually, it's very hard to find good investment these day, especially if we consider that metals are now also turning down aggressively, with silver falling below $12. So even "safe havens" are sold now, meaning investors feel much more secure and stable in cash rather than stocks or any other assets. And it's all because of fear that may not stop so easily while coronavirus keeps spreading around the world.

Now, looking at the DXY with it's current price action, we think that even higher prices can be coming and ready to retest the 100 area, but in the meantime be aware of set-backs. 96.00/96.50 can be a nice support.

*A Flat is a three-wave pattern labeled A-B-C that generally moves sideways. It is corrective, counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern. In our case we labelled an expanded flat.

We realize that markets are very volatile and unstable these days. That’s why we decided to give out a Special Discount to New and OLD members; Save 50% on Any FX or Digital Package.

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Trade Well,
GH

USD Index, daily




 

Coronavirus in South America Can Send MXN Lower

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Feb 26 2020
 
USDMXN is making a corrective set-back after five waves up completed a wave A) near 19.26 from where we saw one leg of a pullback so far. But we know that pullbacks are made by three waves, so we can assume that higher degree wave B) is still in play and may actually fill the gap around 18.88 which at the same time can be nice support for a new turn up. Corona-virus had also been found in south America, meaning it may not be far away from Mexico so any bad news about corona-virus spread may easily cause more damage to MXN which is already anticipate by a technical outlook.

usdmxn, daily + 4h


Trade well,

The EW-Forecast team


 

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