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E-Mini S&P500 Ahead Of NFP

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June 02 2017

S&P500 is trading at all time highs with some sharp price move up from 2403 that we see it as fifth wave rally; final part of a five wave recovery from 2345, called an impulse wave*. There are some Fibonacci levels around 2440 that may play out an important roll for the next few sessions, as we think that upside can be limited and that new corrective set-back can be coming at the start of June. However, extended fifth waves are very common on stock markets, so do not chase it and call a top until you see a five wave drop from the high.

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*Impulse wave is structured by five subwaves in the direction of a stronger trend. The picture below shows a five wave move to the upside, meaning that price is in uptrend. When five move is complete you can expect a three wave set-back.


wave 1 must be an impulse or a leading diagonal
wave 2 can be any corrective pattern except a triangle
wave 2 must not retrace more than 100% of wave 1
wave 3 must be an Impulse
wave 3 must be longer than wave 2
wave 4 can be any corrective pattern (zig-zag, double or triple zig-zag, triangle, flat, double or triple three)
wave 4 should never trade into a territory of a wave 1
wave 5 must be an impulse or an ending diagonal
wave 3 should never be the shortest wave when compared to waves 1 and 5

 

BTCUSD In A Pullback

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May 30 2017

Good day to everyone,

We posted a few updates last week for Bitcoin and highlighted a reversal to lower levels. So far there was a nice deep pullback which we firstly thought it may come to an end soon, but after reviewing daily and intraday structure, we think that there can be more weakness or at least sideways price action within current environment. We see wave four which based on time compared to wave 2 may not be over yet. Also bounce on intraday chart from 1840 did not convince me so be careful with this ongoing "bubble". But after all.. what is a market bubble? For me it's something that has to do with "crowd psychology". But if everyone things its a "bubble" then this bubble may not be over yet. Markets normally breaks when its least expected...
Grega




VIDEO ANALYSIS: Crude Oil

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May 30 2017

Last week we have seen some interesting price movements on crude oil. I covered this market few times on twitter feed and highlighted an interesting reversal pattern before price fell sharply from 52.00 levels down to 48.30 low. It was a strong move, so traders are wondering if they should trust current weakness or is that a new set-back that can potential take price higher in June. To answer some of these questions I put a new video together for oil. See it below.

Grega



Video: NZDJPY and S&P500 Video Update Crude OIl

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May 19 2017

Good day traders!
In todays video I will give you a quick update from last week when we talked about NZDJPY weakness based on potential turn pullback on US stocks.

I wish you a good weekend!

Grega




E-Mini S&P500

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May 11 2017

We may see a deeper pullback on stocks, based on E-mini S&P500 count which shows a three wave move from March lows into a new all time high that was seen just for a day near 2400. Price is ticking lower now, so we may see a retracement back into the middle of a 2319-2400 trading range to make this wave four more complex; a flat maybe even a triangle. Also, there is a gap near 2350 that may not stay open for a long time. Once wave four correction will show evidences of a completion a new strong bullish run may show up.


Flat correction 3-3-5

Why to fight that trend from 2009 low, when each retracement proved to be corrective since then. Why would this time be any different? It's not enough data to look for a top yet.





GBPUSD: Bulls May Slow Down At Intraday Resistance 1.2950- 1.3000

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April 28 2017
 
GBP is the strongest this week, now again breaking to a new high against the USD, so market participants are becoming more and more bullish on this currency, but from a technical perspective we believe they should be very careful. Reason is an EW structure which shows that market went out of a triangle this week, therefore it's in final stages of a higher degree structure so upside can be limited, especially if we also consider that we can count five sub-waves up in wave 5 of 3). We see some nice Fib. resistance near 1.2950-1.3000. A reversal into a new correction can be seen from the highlighted area.

GBPUSD, 1H

                                                                                          

 

E-mini S&P500: Be Aware Of A 3-Wave Rally

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March 27 2017
 
We see dollar index to hit new lows of the year as EURUSD breaks above 1.0800, while stocks sold-off as Trump's health-care bill fails. E-mini S&P500 has extended its weakness from last week down to 2320 area which was our projected zone for a fifth wave of decline, highlighted last week. Question is, what is next. Well, if you are familiar with the Ellliott Wave principle, then you know that market can be ready for a bounce this week if we consider that after every five waves trend will make a change in three legs minimum, no matter what is the structure on a higher time-frame charts. So from a technical perspective, and also from a psychological point of view, when others are turning aggressively bearish on stocks, we suspect that three wave of retracement may show up on stocks, but it may be just another temporary recovery. Divergence on the RSI also indicates a potential turn. We see first support zone here near 2320 while next one stands near 2310.
 
S&P500, 1H

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