AUDUSD turned sharply lower and made a daily close beneath rising trend-line connected from March lows. We also need to consider that decline from 1.0580 is looking impulsive; strong and large move in a very short period of time. As such, this leg must be part of a larger bearish sequence that should unfold minimum in three waves. Ideally we will see a zig-zag down in wave (Y) of a complex wave E as shown on the updated count. In the very near-term traders who are interested to join the bearish trend may want to keep an eye on that broken trend-line that may turn into a resistance around 1.0420.



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European shares and US pre-market has been trading higher for the last couple of hours and caused some downside on USD and JPY. Earlier we mentioned to our members that we will keep them updated regarding the JPY pairs as there could be some trading opportunity in the near future based on bearish S&P sentiment. Below we have NZDJPY chart where decline can be counted impulsively, so current rally should prove corrective. We would love to be short on that one, but we need three legs up from 80.54. Current minor five wave rally in red labels represents wave (a) of a zig-zag, so more sideways and even upside price action to come.

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Oil recovered nicely in the last few days from 91.80 back to 94.75 which was expected after a completed five wave pattern down. We were tracking a corrective bounce in the last few days which has unfolded very nicely and stopped at 94.75, almost on a tick at wave four resistance of one lesser degree. Notice that market reversed sharply lower few sessions back after completed double zig-zag. Fall us clearly in impulsive fashion which has also extended through the lower side of a corrective channel. This is a clear bearish signal for further weakness on oil prices, this time towards and through 91.80 support followed by $90-psycho level. New critical invalidation level is now at 94.75.

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AUDUSD moved through 1.0500 swings which mean that wave II pull-back is complete and that larger uptrend is back in progress again. Rise from 1.0346 can be counted impulsively so we believe that AUDUSD will move much higher in the next few days, maybe even weeks if we consider a possible wave III rise even up to 1.0740 Fibonacci extension level. However, we always tend to focus on minimum expectations so we expect to see 1.0600 as a first target (1.618 x wave II). But before that level is seen pair could make a corrective retracement in blue wave (2) back to 1.0450/60 support zone. But pair however, remains in bullish mode as long as 1.0346 holds.