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Risk-off mode Suggests More Weakness on Stocks and On XXX/JPY Pairs


March 11 2019
Hi traders,

the SP500 has turned lower this week, sharply out of the channel in a fifth wave which indicates a completion of an impulse and temporary top at 2800 resistance. We think that a minimum three waves down are in progress now, so more weakness is expected, possibly even back to 2620 after wave B bounce. At the same time this can be the right shoulder in the making.

S&P500 chart

In risk-off mode JPY is normally the safe haven, so it's not a surprise to see JPY much higher this week, as 10 year US note rises. In fact, 10 year shows a resumption higher into a fifth wave which suggests that there is a chance for more risk-off ahead. There was also a nice breakdown on Nikkei index so money definitely moves into JPY.

In such situation we may look at weak XXX/JPY pairs for possible shorts, and based on correlations we see USDJPY and GBPJPY as one of the weakest pairs in current environment.

USDJPY, 30Min chart



ADAUSD Flashback chart - Elliott wave Analysis


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March 06 2019

Cardano made a nice three-wave setback since Feburary 25 as we expected! Can we see a bullish continuation?!

ADAUSD, 4h chart


Elliott Waves: Stock Market On The Rise; But Be Aware of Pullbacks


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Feb 22 2019

Hi traders,
S&P500 has been trading in a corrective decline since September of 2018, and it unfolded a three-wave drop within higher degree wave IV). We can see that wave IV) found a base at the 2324 level, from where a new impulsive recovery is unfolding; its known as a continuation of an uptrend, so we assume that new all-time highs can be coming. However, nothing moves in straight line, so be aware of a pullbacks and ideally current rise will look for a temporary limited upside near the 2813 level, where former swing high can react as resistance. Nice support for any reversal lower can be around 2600/2650.

S&P500, Daily

German DAX is trading similar as the S&P500, now ideally unfolding a minimum recovery in three-waves from the 10282 level; move that can resume towards 11700 as first upward objective and then to 12k. Nice support for DAX on any deeper pullbacks can be around the 10800.

German DAX, Daily


Elliott wave Analysis: USDCAD and Crude OIL Connection


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Feb 14 2019

USDCAD turned down very aggressively in January, but then turned sideways so it appears that some tricky price structure can be unfolding here. Well, we are observing a complex correction, ideally a flat which is now unfolding its final leg C up that can look for resistance at previous wave A swing high; at 1.337 level. From there we should be aware a turn into stronger CAD, and potential drop down into wave C) back to February lows.


If you are trading USDCAD then you should be watching oil prices too. Keep in mind that higher oil prices are bearish for USDCAD. In fact, on oil we see ongoing recovery on a daily chart with more upside coming after wave B set-back is finished. And that’s the time when USDCAD may finally turn down very aggressively.

Crude oil, daily

Below we also have a chart of the negative correlation between Crude oil and USDCAD.


EURNZD Longs If Stocks Hits Resistance?!


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Feb 07 2019

As commodities currencies turns down this week I think it's time to look at some of the crosses. I will look at EURNZD in particular as this one has a very clear path; five waves up from December 2018 low and then deep pullback which now appears completed at 1.6510 because of sharp rise out of the channel. We think more upside can be coming as current rally is looking impulsive, but as always we need pullback!

Another thing about possibly higher EURNZD is penitential turn down on stocks. Keep in mind that E-mini S&P500 is at resistance, so deeper pullback can be coming which may support EURNZD even more as longs on this one is risk-off play.

Please check video for more details:

Trade well, GH


Will 5th Wave Limit Upside For Gold?


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Jan 29 2019

No doubt, gold is bullish, unfolding five waves from the 1211 level as part of a bigger recovery. We can see that recently price found a base for corrective wave 4 at the 1277 level from where a sharp and strong leg up is currently unfolding. This strong move can be labelled as final sub-wave 5) in progress, which can look for resistance near the 1310/1320 area; it's a Fibonacci extension of 1.618% of wave four and also the upper Elliott wave channel line in that area, that can slow down the bullish trend.

Keep in mind that after every five waves market may retrace in three legs minimum, so don't be surprised if FOMC Press Conference and US NFP numbers will cause a turn.

A drop and daily close below 1300 would signal that a top has been found and that deeper pullback is coming.

For now, it's good to be patient here as I see metal ''too high to be long, and too soon to be short.''

Trade well, GH


Stocks heading higher; Can Bitcoin and friends follow?!


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Jan 16 2019

Bitcoin is becoming very interesting after that clear five-wave rally from 3100 lows into a wave A/1 and clear three-wave a-b-c corrective structure in wave B/2, which leads into a nice inverted H&S pattern, so we could have a perfect bullish setup and a potential rally for wave C/3. Just keep in mind that bulls can be confirmed only above 4100 region. Invalidation level remains at 3100.
We have seen a lot of periods when stocks and Cryptos were trading together. Question is, if BITCOIN is lagging and if NASDAQ suggests higher prices for Cryptos too. We see stocks turning up impulsively, so higher Crypto should not be surprise. Stock market rally, specifically NASDAQ100 could easily lift Bitcoin and friends higher since we see a tight correlation between stock and Crypto market.

BTCUSD and BTCUSD vs Nasdaq, 4h


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