New York time: 00:00:00
Local time: 00:00:00
Newsletter RSS 


DAX: A Textbook Bearish Pattern

Top


 

Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Nov 28 2017

Good day traders.
Recently we have seen some negative correlation between US and EU markets. We can see S&P50 moving sharply higher while DAX came under pressure this month and fall aggressively since start of November. On the chart below we can see that Nikkei, DAX and FTSE100 are all trading lower, while S&P500 is the only one trading at the high. This is not what you want to see in “risk-on” environment since it can mean an upcoming a reversal.



Technically speaking, I think that other three indexes suggests that sooner or later US markets will also turn lower for a pullback. The reason comes from a clear and textbook pattern on German DAX, which shows an Elliott Wave cycle in action. It’s a five wave pattern up since late August that peaked on November 07, after that aggressive fall down to 12900. It was a strong impulse reaction, labeled as wave A. Well, when it comes to trading you want to trade in the direction of impulses, which means that now it should be to the downside, same but opposite to what we have seen in that uptrend since September when each slow price move (blue circles) represented a correction. So if we respect what market is doing, then price may do the same thing this time, but to the downside as current slow price move around 13000 also looks like a correction, ideally wave B. Despite that, we also know that from an Elliott Wave perspective any reversal in trends should be made by minimum three waves, so on our chart wave C is still missing which should take price below end of wave A. Also, there is a bearish H&S pattern, which is pointing lower too. 
   



So my conclusion is that DAX will drop, same thing is with Nikkei and FTSE100 which are in similar situation, and this could cause a temporary limited upside on S&P500 as well. My view remains unchanged as long as November highs on DAX are not breached.

If you want to be on track with intraday price move of Dax and other correlated markets, such as EURUSD, then you may consider to take a trial of our services.

Trade well,
GH



 

Video Analysis: EUR, GBP, AUD, OIL BTC

Top




Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Nov 23 2017

We have seen a nice turn up on EURUSD in the last two weeks so it appears that pair is not bearish yet and that we may see another retest of 1.2 level while Crude oil keeps moving higher. At the same time we see commodity pairs turning up for a corrective recovery while GBPUSd is sitting on a big trend line; will it fail?

I will also look at Bitcoin EW cylces.

Trader well,
GH
 
   

Video: Crude Remains Bullish, NZDUSD and AUDUSD Bearish

Top



Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Nov 17 2017

In our new video we will give you an update on Crude oil and NZDUSD from last week. I will also cover AUDUSD.

Have a good weekend.
GH
 


   

Video Update: BTCUSD, NZDUSD, and Crude OIL

Top



Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Nov 10 2017

BitCoin moved up to 8000 and touched some important Fibonacci levels that can impact the bull trend. In our video we will also look at NZDUSD and CRUDE OIL.

Have a good day,
GH
 


For Crypto Currencies pdf. report sign up here. Its FREE!!
   

USDCHF Is Turning Back To Bullish Mode

Top



Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Nov 09 2017

USDCHF is on a strong rise, after breaking through some important levels and a trendline on the daily chart so we see market turning bullish, currently making a five wave rise. Specifically we see price trading within corrective wave 4), that can cause a strong push higher soon into wave 5 this week; out of a triangle which is a continuation pattern. Break of wave D swing high opens door for 1.02/1.03.
 
   



 

EURUSD May Hit 1.1450/1.1500

Top



Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Oct 30 2017

EURUSD broke down last week through 1.1730 level that caused a drop to a new low of the month which impacted some of recent bullish wave structure. What is really important at this stage is that current drop is accelerating which normally occurs in wave three, so we think there can be a new five wave drop in progress right now from 1.1877 Oct 12 swing since current leg is the strongest bearish reaction since September high. It's very important to listen the market and not get "married" to the "bullish idea". That said, we adjusted the structure and are now looking at a three wave drop from the September high which can either be a new five wave drop in progress for new euro bearish cycle, or is going to be just a deep A-B-C pullback. In either case there is room for pair to touch 1.1450-1.1500 area, especially if we consider an important zone on a daily time frame.

 
     





Aussie Bears Are Back

Top


Our Services               |           Subscribe to our newsletter

Oct 26 2017

There have been a lot of talks this year about a trend in change on AUDUSD pair as pair holds 0.6800 for two years now. Always, before you want to make a conclusion about the direction of a trend make a step back and look at weekly or monthly charts, and ask yourself. Is this uptrend or downtrend? Is recovery from recent extreme sharp or slow? Once you have answered these questions you can make a prediction for next probable move, which I think can be lower.

Look at monthly price action; I see a strong decline from 2011 high all the way down to a trendline connected from 2001. Notice that market did not go anywhere far lately, it’s just testing that trendline which can be breached in months ahead, if we consider that recovery is not looking strong from 2015; rather slow, thus corrective which is normal after that strong decline down through 2014 and 2015.



If we go even further and scroll down to a lower time frame, like a weekly chart then we can see that rise from 2015 was in three waves. And here comes the interesting part when it comes to Elliott Wave theory, which says that three wave rallies in downtrend are corrections, same like a three wave decline in uptrend that are also temporary set-backs. In other words, its just a pause within major trend, a sideways move that is trying to confuse a trader. That’s why is always important to make a step back, look at the bigger picture before make any trading decisions. Also, what we think is important is that turn down from recent high is impulsive if we look at daily chart, next to a weekly. It’s a five wave fall, not a three wave move, therefore it’s an important evidence of a new or temporary bearish trend.

There are also another inter-market relationships with gold, 10 year US notes and other markets that suggest more AUDUSD downside ahead. But we can talk about this in some other post.

Trade well,
Grega


<< [1-7][8-14][15-21][22-28][29-35][36-42][43-49][50-56][57-63][64-70][71-77][78-84][85-91][92-98][99-105][106-112][113-119][120-126][127-133][134-140][141-147][148-154][155-161][162-168][169-175][176-182][183-189][190-196][197-203][204-210][211-217][218-224][225-231][232-238][239-245][246-252][253-259][260-266][267-273][274-280][281-287][288-294][295-301][302-308][309-315][316-322][323-329][330-336][337-343][344-350][351-357][358-364][365-371][372-378][379-385][386-392][393-399][400-406][407-413][414-420][421-427][428-434][435-441][442-448][449-455][456-462][463-469][470-476][477-483][484-490][491-497][498-504][505-511][512-518][519-525][526-532][533-539][540-546][547-553][554-557] >>