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SP500 Charting: 2016 US Elections vs 2020


Nov 01 2020

During regular weekend charting I was looking at the SP500 and compared current development to 2016 US elections when stocks turned up aggressively higher. But before market resumed higher we saw a top in August then retracement followed by a bounce after three leg correction. This time, I see very similar development, which can be the case if Trump wins. In such case we should watch 3k. However, I am worried that coronavirus may actually "steal" the move, and take a deeper pullback or cause ongoing consolidation if number of cases will continue to rise with upcoming lock-downs like in EU. Even if Trump wins and cases go up, he will be forced to take actions.

Be careful this week, because it's not only the US elections, also plenty of other events and data, such as RBA and BOE rates, US ISM PMI, FOMC statement and even NFP on Friday.
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Gold Can Be In Final Stages Of A Corrective Set-back


Oct 25 2020

Gold is very interesting asset that will always be on investors watchlist, especially during unstable period like we are facing now, and with QE in full force, I think metals has plenty of room to rise.

From a technical point of view we see Gold moving to the downside since August, but the price action is very slow and choppy with overlapping wave structure, which actually suggests a corrective movement, ideally a complex W-X-Y decline within a higher degree wave IV) that can find the support around 1800 level. This level is also interesting if we consider that it comes in at 100 Daily SMA with a similar length-retracement compared to March, while from EW perspective it can be completing the final wave C of Y. So, watch out for a limited downside and be aware of a bullish reversal as we approach the end of 2020.

To me it’s important to see a minor bounce in five waves, before I can call end of a corrective retracement which would be then a constructive looking for opportunities on the long side.

Trade well!


ElliottWaves On SP500 and USD Index


Oct 25 2020

EURUSD found the support recently and rallied up to 1.1880 where we saw some reversal in the last few sessions, from the upper trendline resistance as stocks came lower into a pullback. SP500 seems to be trapped within ongoing consolidation, ideally a triangle, so market may still see more upside after A-B-C-D-E subwaves, but ideally after the US elections. But in the mean-time we have to be aware of any potential dips due to coronavirus lockdowns that seem to be spreading very fast in Europe. However, business and investors can be prepared much better this time compared to March, so any new dip can be temporary

For more detailed analysis on SP500 and the USD Index, please check our video below.

GBPAUD Is Moving Into Resistance


Oct 20 2020

GBPAUD moving higher, searching for resistance after dovish RBA. But BREXIT is a bigger issue , not to mention coronavirus cases. So is this only a temporary rise on GBPAUD?


XRP: Bears May Not Be Over Yet


Oct 18 2020

Ripple is moving to the downside since August with a five-wave drop from the 0.3295 highsl. So this appears to be wave A, as part of ongoing bearish reversal. In fact, current recovery looks very slow and choppy which usually indicates for a corrective a-b-c movement, ideally into a wave B that has already reached the first resistance at the previous wave four. Current intraday weakness may also cause a strong drop beneath the channel support which will open room for wave C down.
Another reason why we think this worth to keep an eye on another drop on ripple is Longs/Shorts ratio chart, which we see it at the upper side of a range, at the resistance zone and it's telling us market is positioned long, expectations are for the rise, so simply it may not happen so easily, especially if we respect the past two cycles.





Oct 16 2020

It appears that crude oil prices stabilized after that sharp drop at the start of September. Then energy was able to recover close to $42 but move is not that strong, rather slower and choppier; very undecided direction due to increase of corona-virus cases and potential second lock-down. However, I don’t think we will see the repeat of a March and April decline, since I doubt we will see the same hard 2nd lockdown, especially not in the US under Trump administration. But fear remains in eyes of investors so new dip may not be surprise before real price stabilization occurs.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, I see nice ongoing corrective drop from $44 area that will ideally unfold as an A-B-C correction. In zigzag you will typically see price retracement back to the area of a former wave four, which in our case was near $34.64. The next support I would keep an eye is around $30.00, which is psychological level that comes in around 38.2% Fib. retracement compared to previous five wave rise. Regarding timing for this wave 2)/B), it may finish as we approach the year end.

If I am on the right track then I think there can be nice opportunity on the long side in 2021, after that dip. But if it goes straight up from here, then it’s better to wait and see if bulls are going to be early, or is something else going on for a complex wave 2)/B).


If you are trading more actively FX rather than crude oil, then you may pay attention to USDCAD weakness once crude oil completes that set-back from $44.00. Ideally, USDCAD will then break down from a fourth wave consolidation, which can be either a flat or a triangle.

Trump vs Biden - Who Will Win? -Elliott Wave Applied


Oct 15 2020

Hey traders,

Elliott wave theory tracks sentiment that moves from optimism to pessimism. These are cycles that occur everywhere in our life not only in the markets. Therefore, the Elliott Wave theory is a tool that can be applied even to politics. I will look at the Elliott Wave cycles on the US Presidential elections, and are wondering if we can see a surprise here or shift in trend.

Take care,


For more info check the video below:

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