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Elliott Wave- Dollar Index Down; S&P500 Up

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Oct 17 2012

Dollar index extended even lower yesterday, now through the channel support line which puts market into even more bearish mode than before. We believe that wave 5 is underway which should unfold in five waves towards 78.00 projected zone. Any short-term bounce will look for a reversal from a trend-line; broken support becomes resistance.

dx621
 

We think that S&P500 will continue higher and the reason is a three wave of a pull-back from latest 1474 high which we know its a structure of a corrective movement. Ideally that was wave 4 of an incomplete five wave rally in red wave 3. If we are correct, then price will move back above 1480 in the next few weeks that will cause even more bearish pressure on the USD.

 
sp621


(Elliott Wave) EURUSD Sideways Within A Triangle

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Oct 12 2012

EURUSD found the support yesterday and rallied back above 1.2930 after unsuccessful push through 1.2804. As such, our triangle count is still in play. In fact thats now primary labeling for fourth wave, but pattern, however, is still far away from completion. Triangles are five wave patterns, so if we are correct, then market will remain trapped in 1.2800-1.3070 range for few more days as current rally represents wave (d). If our interpretation is correct, then 1.2800-1.2820 support zone should not give way.



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(Elliott Wave) USDCAD Looks Bearish Againts 0.9886

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Oct 10 2012

USDCAD looks very bearish after a sharp fall through channel support line, which we believe it was corrective. If thats the case then we know that larger downtrend should continue as fall from 0.9886 unfolded impulsively, followed by a slow upward reaction in this week, which appears to be wave (ii), part of wave 5. As such, our forecast is still pointing down on USDCAD as long as 0.9886 holds.

usdcad614
 

Trading Results And Set-up Charts

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Oct 07 2012

New trading quarter has come to an end, and as promised, we decided to share our all trading results since start of this year. We produced 1128 pips with 44 trades (W:22, L:18, B/E:4).

Please, click on the link below for more trading details. In fact, each trading opportunity that we shared includes a "set-up chart" for a particular pair based on Elliott Wave Principle. This might be very important for some readers, especially from educational point of view, and for those who are curious about the set-ups that we are constantly looking for.

You will notice that some of the trade set-ups in the report are marked as “canceled”. Unfortunately, those trades were never filled, but in more than 90% of the time market still moved in our anticipated direction. And this traders, we think is also very important to know; you build confidence on those "missed" trades because you know that your bias was right.

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Dollar Index; Impulsive Downtrend

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Oct 01 2012

A decisive break through the support line of a bullish trading channel connected from 2011 low (circled area) suggests that dollar index formed an important high around 84.00, labeled as wave B. In fact, decline from that peak into 78.60 level was sharp followed by a very slow upward movement in second part of September which should be corrective. From an EW perspective this appears to be wave 4, part of an impulsive weakness. If we are correct, then price will turn bearish again, ideally from 80.00-80.50 resistance area.




Dollar Index At QE3 Resistance

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Sep 26 2012

Morning traders!

Despite a strong risk-off reaction seen yesterday during the US hours we will not give up on risk-on views. Reason is on the chart, where at the moment decline on S&P500 cash market cannot be counted impulsive. As such, we think its corrective temporary movement part of a larger uptrend. 

S&P500 (cash) 1h

sp606

With that said, we are observing few pairs for USD short set-ups. One that we like is USDCAD where recovery is clearly corrective with nice resistance at 0.9840-0.9850.

USDCAD 1h

usdcad

Structure on dollar Index is also reason why we expect that dollar rally will reverse soon. Recovery cannot be counted impulsive, notice that price is slow and overlapping within a trading channel. That’s clearly personality of a corrective movement and we cannot ignore. Price is now at 79.80 resistance which was high price after QE3 announcement on Sep 13th.

Dollar Index 1h

dx

We will definitely keep a very close eye on USDCAD for possible shorts in the near future.  Grega

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Elliott Wave Video: EURUSD, AUDUSD and Oil

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Sep 15 2012

Risk-on trend is very clear, and we will continue to look for trade set-ups in this direction. In the video below we are looking at some potential candidates.


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