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Ethereum Remains Bullish

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Mar 30 2021

Hello traders and investors!

Today we will talk about cryptocurrencies, specifically Ethereum ( ETHUSD ), its price action from a technical point of view, and wave structure from the Elliott Wave perspective.

Well, as you already know, the Crypto market is in a massive rally and after recent sideways price action and corrective wave structure, seems like there's room for more gains, especially for ETHUSD in which we see a bullish development based on two different interpretations.

In the first count, we are tracking a bullish triangle formation within wave 4, where the final wave »e« is still missing before we will see a break into new all-time highs for wave 5.

In the second count, we are observing a completed wave 4 correction, which can be followed by a new five-wave impulse within wave 5 that can push the price straight into all-time highs with room even up towards 2500 area.

What we want to say is that, be aware of a bullish continuation on Ethereum at the beginning of April, but only if the price manages to stay above the 1520 invalidation level.

Be humble and trade smart!




Surfing the Waves Mar 30 2021 -Video Update

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Mar 30 2021

Hey traders!

Below is new video analysis, covering 10 year US notes, usdjpy, euraud, audjpy, usdchf, sp500 and nasdaq100.

 
GH


Stocks Are Bullish, But Pullbacks Are Inevitable As No Fear May Bring The Fear

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Mar 30 2021

Hello traders and investors!

Today we will talk about stocks and correlated markets that can be indicating for a potential slow down in the next few sessions.

Regarding stocks, it's important to keep an eye on VIX (Volatility Index), which is seen at very low levels, meaning investors are not worried about the potential drop on stock price, but we know that market moves in cycles so when there is no fear it may suggest that we may see the opposite reaction. Volatility could pick up in the next few months and normally that's the case when stocks are coming down.

Why we think that there can be some reversals coming in the markets are definitely Emerging markets (EEM) where price is coming out of an EW channel after a completed five-wave cycle, therefore a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) setback can see more weakness.

Next very important market for positive economic cycle is Crude oil, where higher price is caused by higher demand which comes out of economic activity. But energy is turning down now, so can be first indication for a potential lower stock prices in weeks ahead. And it's also important to mention that S&P500 can be approaching 4k psychological level within a potential wedge pattern, known as a reversal pattern.

With that being said, we think that it's good to be aware of a potential reversals in weeks ahead and be properly prepared rather then negatively surprised. I believe that these markets have room for more upside but retracement are healthy and almost needed at this point to attract new buyers at better price levels.

Trade well,

GH

Be humble and trade/invest smart!




Elliott Wave Analysis: GBP/USD Breaking Out Of A Triangle

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Mar 24 2021

Pound is turning south since last week BOE meeting when they said that current policy is appropriate, and some speculations indicate that they may not raise rates until 2023. And then you also have vaccine supply issues which puts downward pressure on cable, while at the same time we see higher US yields making dollar strong.

From an Elliott Wave perspective cable was expected to come down as we recognized a triangle pattern in wave B, mentioned in VIDEO ANALYSIS last week. It's a continuation pattern that caused a new leg down, currently with a sharp and even accelerating drop into wave C). This leg can be headed to 1.3560/1.36 area while pair trades below 1.3880, especially if we consider that even latest strong PMI data cannot cause much of a recovery when looking at intraday price action. As such I think wave C) can stay in the cards for now, but it may again become very interesting for a new turn-around once a projected support is reached. Keep in mind that that whole drop from 1.4240 is still in three waves, thus it can be corrective wave 4 of a higher degree. But as always for any new change in trend we will have to wait on a five wave rise.




Surfing the Waves Mar 23 2021 -Video Update

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Mar 23 2021

Hello traders,

Below is new video analysis, covering aussie, gbpusd, usdjpy, usdchf, sp500 and nasdaq100


GH

Elliott wave analysis: USDTRY can be headed much higher afer Erdogans actions

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Mar 22 2021

We have a few topics that will drive the markets this week. First is coming from Turkey after Erdogan has fired the central bank governor after they increased rates on Thursday. TRY lost 15% against the USD. Second important topic is all about vaccine and covid cases which are again increasing in EU, and this will probably lead to new lockdowns and restrictions early this week, so crude can see another dip or sideways price action.

From an Elliott Wave perspective the USDTRY is still seen in long-term uptrend that appears incomplete when looking at the weekly chart. Keep in mind that even if leg from 5.06 is final in a sequence we need five subwaves up within wave five which is not the case yet, so we think that even more upside can be seen in upcoming months, especially on speculations that Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may cut interest rates after recent Erdogan's action.




Also, keep an eye on USD and CNH this week after Russia's top diplomat starts China visit with call to reduce US dollar use. US will respond to that for sure so we may see some volatility on USDCNH pair which may leave AUDUSD in a sideways mode where I am observing incomplete fourth wave correction.


BTCUSD: Combination of HS and Elliott Wave

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Mar 21 2021

Today we want to present you the chart of Bitcoin.
As you probably know, the famous cryptocurrency has been rallying lately as many large funds and even companies like Tesla bought massive quantities in the order of Billions of USD. Despite the relevant news, we like to stay focused on the technicals and look at Bitcoin through the lenses of the Elliott Wave Theory.

Our analyst noticed the move down from the February 21st high in three waves, and we know that “three waves a trend don’t make”, meaning that the move had to be corrective.

Eventually we started to see a nice and clear old-school pattern called Head and Shoulders pattern. In this particular event it could be called inverse head and shoulders since the trend was expected to resume higher and not lower.

Ideally price would look for a retest of what is call neckline of the H/S pattern before uptrend resumes, and gives even more confidence in a bullish outlook.

BTC March 10 chart:



The H/S came very handy in this scenario because it was bringing confluence to out initial bullish count, and also helped us to find an additional analytical method. In this scenario the left shoulder is represented by wave A, the head by wave C and the right shoulder by wave 2 as shown in the picture below:



We would usually expect a continuation to the upside once the neckline had been broken to consequentially complete the wave 3. It didn’t take much before this scenario became reality. Price recovered very nicely and even hit H&S projection target zone that was also highlighted by Grega in this free article

Updated chart:




So does the Elliott Wave work? Sure it does, because it's all about psychology behind the market's direction. So when something doe not work is not because of EW theory, but because of analyst that didn't correctly define the crowd cycle. Sometimes this is tricky, but sometimes can be much easier process when market moves and patterns are clear, so it's very important for our analysis to know what are good and what are bad market conditions; these above on BTC was classic, almost text-book example with combination of Elliott Wave and H&S.

If you want more updates and analysis on cryptocurrencies then make sure to check our Elliott Wave premium services here

Have a nice day.


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