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Dollar Index; Impulsive Downtrend

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Oct 01 2012

A decisive break through the support line of a bullish trading channel connected from 2011 low (circled area) suggests that dollar index formed an important high around 84.00, labeled as wave B. In fact, decline from that peak into 78.60 level was sharp followed by a very slow upward movement in second part of September which should be corrective. From an EW perspective this appears to be wave 4, part of an impulsive weakness. If we are correct, then price will turn bearish again, ideally from 80.00-80.50 resistance area.




Dollar Index At QE3 Resistance

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Sep 26 2012

Morning traders!

Despite a strong risk-off reaction seen yesterday during the US hours we will not give up on risk-on views. Reason is on the chart, where at the moment decline on S&P500 cash market cannot be counted impulsive. As such, we think its corrective temporary movement part of a larger uptrend. 

S&P500 (cash) 1h

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With that said, we are observing few pairs for USD short set-ups. One that we like is USDCAD where recovery is clearly corrective with nice resistance at 0.9840-0.9850.

USDCAD 1h

usdcad

Structure on dollar Index is also reason why we expect that dollar rally will reverse soon. Recovery cannot be counted impulsive, notice that price is slow and overlapping within a trading channel. That’s clearly personality of a corrective movement and we cannot ignore. Price is now at 79.80 resistance which was high price after QE3 announcement on Sep 13th.

Dollar Index 1h

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We will definitely keep a very close eye on USDCAD for possible shorts in the near future.  Grega

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Elliott Wave Video: EURUSD, AUDUSD and Oil

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Sep 15 2012

Risk-on trend is very clear, and we will continue to look for trade set-ups in this direction. In the video below we are looking at some potential candidates.


USD/CHF: Patiently Waiting For Bullish Price Action

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USDCHF was trading lower during August: from the 0.9970 high, where we believe that wave A, part of a second larger zig-zag, found the peak. If that is the case, we know that the sell-off from that latest high must be a corrective move.

Well, if we take a look on the substructure of a current decline, which is very choppy and overlapping, then we definitely must be prepared for an uptrend continuation. But that’s not all. Notice that the pair is trading very closely to previous wave (4) of one lesser degree where important turning points usually occur. However, we still need some kind of an upward reaction before we may look for a push towards parity. An impulse rally back to 0.9700 will argue that wave B bottom was found.




Dollar Index: Strong Support Comes In At 81.00

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Dollar index found some support lately but not for long as bounce should be wave (iv), part of incomplete C that still has a room for a decline towards 81.00 projected level. We will be looking for evidences of a low formation in that zone as then we will have five needed waves in C, and we know that after every five waves trend changes at least temporary.





Euro Bund: Downward Correction Is Incomplete

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Euro Bund: Downward Correction Incomplete

Aug 14 2012

We can see that on German bund recovery from 142.13 was corrective; clearly only in three waves. So, if that was a minor contra-trend movement, labeled as wave b, then we know that downtrend on German bund is incomplete. As such, new fall below 142.13 should be seen this week, into wave c, possibly towards 141.00. This fall will then cause more buying on EURUSD. Please check yesterdays video (members only) and Alternate analysis on EURUSD.
So based on current developments its still too soon to look for any EURUSD short opportunities, but that should change once correction on the chart below show us evidences of a bottom.



Crude Oil: Rally Is Corrective

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Aug 09 2012

On crude oil we are observing a corrective rally, which means that larger downtrend, started back in March 2012 remains in play. The price structure is showing a three wave movement from 77 low with a running triangle in wave B. Keep in mind that break out of a triangles are terminal. So, if we are correct, then current strength is wave C is a final leg of a recovery that already reached first resistance around 94.40. We may see even extensions to 96 or even 99 based on Fibonacci projections, which however may not get hit if market reverses lower in impulsive fashion. So all focus should now be on any larger decline. Because if fall will unfold in five waves, let’s say back below $90.50 per barrel, then we will call and confirm a tradeable top of a C wave and will focus on larger downtrend continuation.
Remember, let the price confirm your wave count!




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