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Usd/Jpy: Bullish Reversal

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Aug 05 2010

Usd/Jpy reversed yesterday from 85.30 region, where it seems that a temporary low is now in place. The prices bounced exactly from the support line connected from 86.95 low, which in fact seems to be a lower line of an ending diagonal pattern. The wave structure suggests that prices are now headed higher, at least towards the upper resistance line.

Usd/Jpy 4h chart:




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Usd/Jpy: Bullish Reversal!?

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Oct 28 210

Usd/Jpy: Bullish Reversal!?

Usd/Jpy formed a sharp impulsive downtrend over the past few weeks, from 85.95 top, which was established after the BOJ intervened in September. Obviously, intervention did not work as pair formed a nice five wave, called an impulsive decline with a recent low at 80.40. Always when five sequence is finished, a correction in the opposite direction occurs; and this is exactly what is unfolding right now on Usd/Jpy. In Elliott Wave theory a correction is always structured minimum by three waves, and since we can see only one leg from the lows we anticipate at least one more push higher after a wave (2)/(B) pull-back is finished. Another evidence for a temporary change in trend is also a broken trend line, connected from 85.95 highs, which may react as a support in the near future, plus bullish divergence on the RSI.

Usd/Jpy 4h chart:



If we go down to 1h chart, then we can see that an impulsive structure from 80.40 found the top yesterday, somewhere around 82.00 region, from where market formed a three wave of decline, which should be a corrective A)-B)-C) move within a blue wave (2)/(B). Traders may keep an eye on a significant support region shown around 81.00-81.15, from where upward continuation could be seen. Wave count and bullish bias remains valid as long as the pair trades above 80.40 lows.


Usd/Jpy 1h chart:




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