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Sep 09 2015

WTI moved sharply from August low; it recovered around 30% in just five days, so move was very agresive. From an Elliott Wave perspective impulses are sharp; these are structured by five subwaves which tells us where the market is headed. To me it tells that temporary low is in place and that price will recover with minimum three waves above $50.

On the 4h chart below we can clear see five waves up, which is big wave (a) or (i) as part of a big incompelte wave recovery. A sharp turn down from 49.30 last week suggests that WTI accomplished wave (a)/(i) and that market is in now in corrective pullback of a higher degree. We are tracking wave (b) as labeled on the chart, which can be headed down to 41-43 area where we see nice support level. At 42.00 it’s wave c)=a) which comes in around very important 61.8% Fibonacci zone. That’s ideal area then for a possible bounce that can happen this month, when traders can be looking for longs. We will be looking for a move up, back to $50 per barrel as long as 37.70 is not breached.

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