Intraday EW Report Ahead of NFP
August 04 2017
Good morning traders!
Market is waiting on NFP report which is expected to pull out number of 182K. As we know positive surprise will cause USD to rise, while figure well below 182K can cause much lower levels of USD index.
Technically speaking we see Usd in mixed position, it can be headed higher against EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY while it may stay sideways or even down against NZD, CAD and AUD.
Today I am focused on stocks and USDJPY today as both seem to be in final stages of a correction. I will look at DAX where I see fifth wave in play that may look for a bottom at 12000 level soon from where a sharp turn up will be expected to occur. If that will be the case than USDJPY can do the same thing to the upside, since markets are in positive correlation this month.
DAX vs USDJPY 4h
Another currency that has a very interesting price action across the board is pound which is showing weakness in impulsive fashion since yesterdays BoE Inflation Report and rate decision. On cable there was a strong downward reaction to the lower side of a trading channel, first leg of a bigger sell-off that is expected to continue after a three wave bounce that can be underway now up in wave 2) with resistance seen at 1.3190. GBPAUD is also in similar bearish set-up against 1.6740; so sooner or later lows from July 20 will be retested.
Crude oil prices came nicely down yesterday during US session which has been anticipated since we identified first leg down as wave “a” at the start of this week, followed by a pullback up labeled as wave “b” so wave “c” can be underway now down to 48.00 after just recently broken channel line. However, we do not expect any significant weakness on oil prices as decline from Aug 1st can be correction within uptrend that began in June 21st, so be aware of a bounce next week if not today.
Higher oil prices should also make stronger Canadian dollar which is suggested by USDCAD chart anyhow. We see a three wave rise in progress up in wave four that can find resistance at 1.2630-1.2670, possibly after CAD Employment and Trade balance numbers that are set to be released at 12:30GMT, same time as US NFP.
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