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Intraday Analysis: EURUSD and DAX


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Jan 02 2015

Good morning traders!
Before we begin with the charts let me wish you a Happy and Successful 2015! Well, I definitely begin the year very good, if we consider that my target on EURGBP at 0.7750 has been hit today. AS you know I have been in this trade for two weeks if not more, but patience with »trade your plan« approach has paid off. EURGBP trade was also shared FREE on Forexnews.

Today is Friday, markets are open normally but a lot of traders still took a day off, so we may not get a lot of interesting price action. Normal volumes should be back next week!

As you know US stocks sold-off on the last trading day in 2014. Moves came on profit taking for year end, so actually this move did not surprise me. Also, markets will always try to reverse the moves around the holidays, but then will go back to normal swings once holidays are behind. With that in mind, stocks may not be in retracement for long. On German DAX, we see a nice deep pullback that is considered as a corrective move. We see price now moving into 9500-9700 Fibonacci zone where support could be found. As such, be aware of a turn up in sessions ahead, but ideally early next week.

As you know EUR and DAX are most of the time in negative correlation, so don’t be surprised by bearish EUR forecast while we are looking up on stocks. I mentioned above that more gains could follow on DAX so looking for even lower EUR makes sense. In fact, on EURUSD we see potential wave 3) now in progress that should then be made by five subwaves. If that is the case then more weakness should follow, even beneath 1.2000. If I am on the right track with the count then shorts could in interesting in wave four, but of a higher degree as highlighted on the chart. Firstly need to wait on more price and data, to make sure I am on the right track with the counts.

I wish you good trades in 2015!

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