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Oil: Correction Appears Complete; Further Weakness In View

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Sep 20 2011

Oil prices reversed nicely lower in the past few trading days from the upper side of an ending diagonal pattern. Prices as we can see already broke through the lower support line of a corrective channel, which is usually the most important and strong evidence for a downtrend continuation. This trend line will also tend to react as a resistance. As such, we favor a further weakness on this market, even below August lows while 90.45 top is in place! Keep an eye on 84.80 area, break through that swing low will be a trigger for a downtrend acceleration.

For more detailed technical analysis in video format scroll down (originally recorded and posted on Sep 19)!







Eur/Usd Down to 1.330

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Sep 13 2011

Euro weakness accelerated late in the past week once the prices broke through the lower support line of a base channel, which we know is an evidence of an impulsive wave three. As such, decline from 1.4548 is considered as a powerful impulsive, but still incomplete leg, currently with a corrective wave 4 underway. We expect a completion of this pull-back in the near-term, maybe somewhere above 1.370, from where a new sell-off should occur. Our lower projected target is around 1.3300!

Critical/invalidation level is at 1.3973!






Usd/Chf: Daily close above 0.85 Calls 0.9

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Sep 06 2011

Swiss franc moved lower across the board significantly this morning after Swiss Central Bank intervention. Always when you see move like this you need to make a step back and look at the larger time frames, to see where the price stands and where is it headed.

Well, we are looking at the 4h updated count, where we can see that prices are breaking through the upper side of a base channel. As you know, in many cases this is a very strong indication for a wave three acceleration of an impulsive wave count, as Elliott Wave Theory suggests. As such, we believe that daily close price today will be very important. Close above 0.850 will put much higher levels for days ahead even 0.9 within a wave 3. In such case, our critical region will be at 0.7710, current wave B/2 low.

In fact, a week back we sent a note to subscribers that Usd/Chf has likely reached a major bottom, around 0.7060.




Where To Invest During The Stock Market Collapse!?

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Sep 04 2011

The US stock market moved significantly lower in August, with S&P500 down to 1100 region once the critical region at 1249 (March 2011 lows) was taken out. Below we have a weekly chart, where you will notice that prices also broke through  the lowest support line of a corrective channel which is a very strong indication of  a completed  wave B)/II) around 1370. In such case we know that market is headed much lower, and the reason is a recovery since March 2008 which was clearly in three waves.


Three wave pattern as we know is a corrective structure, and since market already made one impulse down from 2007 pick, we know that long-term trend has changed from bullish to bearish.  With this being said, investors and traders, who are aware of an extremely bearish technical picture, should move their money out of risky assets into cash.

During the crisis money is also going into the bonds, but this safe-haven may not last long, and here is the reason WHY, taken from the book Conquer the Crash (Chapter 15), written by Robert R. Prechter Jr.

  • “Any bond issued by a borrower who cannot pay goes to zero in a depression. In the Great Depression, bonds of many companies, municipalities and foreign governments were crushed. They became wallpaper as their issuers went bankrupt and defaulted. Bonds of suspect issuers also went way down, at least for a time. Understand that in a crash, no one knows its depth, and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.”

However, you can also take advantage during the “stock collapse”! There are many ETF’s that are negatively correlated with stocks, which means they trade higher when stocks are falling. One of them is called SDS (UltraShort S&P500 Proshares). Well, lets take a look the wave count on it.

On SDS daily chart, we can see a very sharp rise from July lows, called an impulsive wave in Elliott Wave theory, followed by a three wave of decline from August pick. A corrective retracement that shows first evidences of a completion around 22 region. Further rise and close above 27 will confirm a bullish trend towards and above 30, while the S&P500 (cash market) will be moving lower.


Will you stay in cash, or will you move your money into assets like SDS is your decision, but keep in mind that there could be a good buying opportunity ahead of us, once the global bear market finds the bottom somewhere below March 2008 low.

Oh and one more thing, "its always better to be prepared than negatively surprised" !!


Are you intra-day trader?! Join us today and get timely and accurate analysis during the "bear market period".


Usd/Chf Reaches A Temporary Top

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Aug 31 2011

Swiss franc is rising this morning, which is quite interesting as the Swiss National Bank tends to announce measures to weaken the franc. Well, it seems that "interventions" were already priced in the market, which caused a reversal.

Anyway, technical side of the pair is the most important to us, which suggests that top has been reached at 0.8238 about we warned  our subscribers several times this week. The reason of course was five sub-waves within a blue wave (v), which was a final leg within a larger impulsive bounce as shown on the 4h chart. We also mentioned in yesterday video (member only), that we expect larger corrective decline, so don't be surprised to see more weakness on this pair while price trades below 0.8230!

1h chart:




4h chart:


Aud/Usd: Recovery Searching For A Top

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Aug 31 2011

Aussie rallied into a new high in recent sessions, after the prices were unable to break through the swing lows that we paid attention on in the past week. So as long this pair will be forming higher highs and higher lows, trend will be considered as a bullish, but still corrective!
We are now looking at the updated wave count from August lows which is corrective, showing a double zig-zag pattern with final part; wave (c) in progress. If we are correct, then an impulsive bearish reversal should occur in coming days, but the question is from where!? We will keep an eye on resistance at 1.07M testing right now, and then maybe even at 1.09, where second will equal to the first zig-zag.



Gold: Temporary Top?

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Aug 24 2011

Gold reversed quite sharply yesterday from 1911 top, a move that shows impulsive personality on a smaller time frame. In fact, prices broke through the blue support line, which is the first but very important step towards the temporary bearish price action. Well, from an Elliott wave perspective, a weakness should not be a surprise after-all, as we can count five sub-waves within a black wave 3. we know that after very five waves, correction follows! As such, we see huge possibilities of a temporary top at 1911, with more weakness to come within a black wave 4 corrective pull-back!



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