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Usd/Chf Outlook

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Oct 25 2011

Usd/Chf recovered in five waves since August, after a very clear breakout to the upside, out of a downtrend channel, which is the most important evidence of a change in trend; from bearish to bullish. As such, we are very confident that significant low is in place and that Usd/Chf will move even higher in coming months, towards parity. But before larger uptrend will continue, we will likely see a deeper pull-back as first impulsive leg wave I appears complete around 0.9310..

Daily chart



4h chart

On the 4h chart below, we can see that Usd/Chf collapsed lower at the end of the past week, through the wave A support. As such, we suspect that wave B is complete around 0.9080 and that wave C is headed lower, ideally into 0.8640 zone, where also wave C equals to wave A. You may have also noticed a head and shoulders pattern, which signals for more bears ahead, after a break through the neckline.




Usd/Jpy: Trend Remains Side-ways

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Oct 17 2011

After a few days of an extremely ranged price action, Usd/Jpy has exploded to the upside, which however does not seem to be the right direction in days ahead, especially after 80 pip reversal seen on day later. Notice also that price action since mid-August is extremely slow and choppy, clear indication of a corrective, contra-trend price action. As such, our bias are still to the downside, but may not be seen immediately as we look for an incomplete triangle. Waves D) and E) now in view, while market trades between important 77.85 and 76.07 levels.

Trend is bearish while 77.85 holds! As things stands right now, we still suggest you to avoid this pair, and wait on a break through one of important levels that will determine direction of a trend.

4h chart:




Euro: Multi-month consolidation

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Oct 17 2011

After a sharp move lower, seen in the past few weeks pair has found a support and has rebounded quite significantly since then. As such, we suspect that wave D is complete and that pair is now trading in final stages of a wave B) running triangle, which may complete late this year. Keep in mind that this wave B) is only second leg of a corrective move lower started in 2008. So, once wave B) is done, a sharp sell-off will follow in C) move, below black wave B extreme!

We expect a sell-off on Euro even towards 1.18 while pair trades below 1.4938.



Eur/Usd: Temporary Change In Trend

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Oct 11 2011

Euro moved higher yesterday, extended the gains after a broken resistant lines, which suggests that we have a temporary bottom in place. We are now looking at the updated wave count which suggests that Euro trades in the first leg of a recovery; wave (A) which is part of a 3-wave corrective bounce that should occur in wave E.





Gbp/Usd: Recovery Udnerway

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Oct 07 2011

Cable moved nicely lower yesterday, into a new low, below 1.5300 level. Well, market reversed sharply just few hours after a new low was established which could be an early signal that wave 5) is done. In fact, we have a very common bullish divergence on the RSI between wave 3) and wave 5) lows which is just another evidence for a bullish reversal. As such, larger A)-B)-C) pull-back will now be the minimum expectation in that recovery mode!




Euro Moving Into 1.3600/1.3700 Resistance Area

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Sep 27 2011

Eur/Usd reached new lows yesterday, but reversed just few hours after that with another 200pip swing during the European and US trading hours. As such, we came out with the solution that the first impulsive decline from 1.3934 is complete and that pair is now trading in larger corrective red wave 2) as labelled on the chart. This leg should find resistance somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, measured from 1.3934. This pick is also critical/invalidation level as wave 2) must not retrace more than 100% of a wave 1), but we believe that even 1.3794 break would already threaten the bearish outlook.
So, as things stands right now, we are still bearish!




Aud/usd: When Weakness Accelerates!

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Sep 22 2011

OK, we have seen enough, pair is not falling in wave (v) as we firstly thought, but its more likely in wave (iii). Why!? Its because of the price action personality, which helps us to label the chart in a correct way. In wave five you will tend to see slow moves with decreasing volumes and divergence on a lot of oscillators/ indicators. Well, in a current sell-off indicators are pushed into new extreme levels with increasing volume, which means only one thing; continuation of a larger trend which is clearly bearish!

So if we believe that pair is falling in wave three of an impulsive move then more weakness to come, because impulses are structured by five waves! Corrective rallies should be an opportunity for shorts.


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