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NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09

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March 09 2012

Somehow I just remembered the NFP numbers from December 2009. At that time expectation was for loss 120K but number came out a loss only of 11K. Much better than expected and euro fell sharply that time and stocks rallied, same reaction as seen today. In fact, I have overlay chart from that time. You will notice that Stocks then moved sideways or even up for the next 30 days before they topped out, while Euro was falling sharply for the next 6monhts.

Will history repeat itself!? You can ignore it or you may not. But my charts today are telling me »Don’t Buy Euro«, and »We are Too High to Invest in Stocks«!

Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later



March 2012




Euro Broke Through The Janurary Support Line! Trend Clearly Bearish!

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Mar 07 2012

Euro keeps falling, forming a nice impulsive fall from the 1.3480 top. Notice that yesterdays price action sent the euro below the falling trend line connected from January lows, which also represents a lower support of a corrective channel. We know that once this channel is broken, that simply means that larger trend is again underway. And in our case this is to the downside. So we expect more Euro weakness in days and weeks ahead, while the 1.3480 top is locked in. In the very near future, what would be nice to see is a bottom of a wave 1, around 1.3050 and then a pull-back back towards the trend-line which will then tend to react as a resistance in wave 2.




Video Analysis Euro, Aussie, Gold, DX, Oil and S&P500

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March 05 2012

Hello traders!

There was a lot of good response to the »Perfect Wave Four« chart that we shared with you last week. The example was presented on crude oil. In fact, we decided to share a video analysis with you which published on March 1st for our members, before the »perfect wave four« actually played out.

And that’s not all, in the video below you will also find the analysis on other markets that we shared with members that time; such as Euro, Aussie, Gold, Dollar index and S&P500.





Gold Headed Below 1680 Next Week

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Mar 02 0212

Gold fell impulsively from 1791 highs, which means that top is in place, most likely of a wave 5) of (1) as labeled on the chart. So if the larger impulse is fished, then we know that market is now in a corrective pull-back, which must be structured minimum by three legs. So ideally, makret now made wave A) from a top and wave B) and C) lie ahead.



For more detailed analysis on gold please see the video below which also includes Euro, Aussie, Oil, dollar index and S&P500

Did Euro Form A Major Reversal At 1.3480?

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Mar 01 2012

Euro tested the weekly highs yesterday around 1.3480 before market reversed sharply lower during the US session. Notice that price broke through an importnat trend line of a wave C) advance, which suggest that at least temporary top is in place, where wave 5 was truncated. If we are correct, then of-course we now need impulsive larger five waves of decline, towards support channel line, which will confirm the larger bearish picture for the Eur/Usd.



NZD/USD Should Benefit From Higher S&P

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Feb 27 2012

Hey guys! US session is here, and USD still quite strong despite some pop up on gold and silver. We are still focused on S&P Futures count, where move from a top is only in three waves with key support/bounce zone comes in at 1345/50 area. Expect a impulse higher here, which will be a catalyst for higher majors, particularly commodity currencies which should wake up very soon.



From a trading perspective, we are keep an eye on Nzd/Usd triangle for possible long, in-line with the S&P Futures expectations.





Aussie Is Headed Towards 1.0780

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Feb 23 2012

Aussie found the intra-day highs, but that will be only temporary, as recovery from the lows has an impulsive shape, which means that lows of wave C at 1.0594 are locked now. Always, when there is an impulsive recovery, you know that this move is part of some larger pattern that must be structured in 3 legs. As such, we now believe that only second leg is in process, labeled as wave (ii) and that uptrend will extend higher in coming sessions, towards 1.0780 while 1.0594 is not breached.

Key support/bounce zone for wave (ii) comes in at 1.0655.




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