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S&P500 Corrective Rally Is Set For 1370/80 Test

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July 03 2012

S&P500 closed sharply higher on Friday, very close to previous swing high. This type of a rally at the end of the week usually puts more strenght in play for the next week, which means more upside in our case, to 1370 area. As such, we are now tracking A-triangle B-C pattern which is still corrective movement. So larger picture is still pointing lower but not just yet.




USDJPY Very Bearish; Now Headed To 78.60 While Below 80.60

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June 27 2012

USDJPY is still very weak since Sunday when market turned sharply bearish from 80.60; when traded very close to wave (C)=(A) levels. Well notice that prices now already formed an overlap with 79.29 highlighted in our past updates which suggest that wave (C) of E is finished and that bear market is now taking a control. Ideally now wave 2) pull-back is underway which should complete in the next two 24-48hours, probably around 79.80-80.00 resistance. Generally speaking rend-line break should occur when bears will accelerate towards 77.60.




Wave Count Test

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June 26 2012

Hello traders. A time ago I received an interesting count from a friend Goncalo Moreira. So I decided to share this with my readers as well. I received many different counts and ideas from readers, and below you will find my view and interpretation and how I would act if this situation would occur in a real-market.

Before I label the waves, I always try to focus on some obvious and simple things:
  • Lets count the structure from the “lowest point to highest point” just in numbers. You will come out with 13. Well, that’s subdivision of a correction/contra trend move like in a zig-zag pattern (5-3-5)
  • Then look at the next most obvious thing-, such as most complex choppy overlapping waves in tight ranges- That’s probably corrective wave then. I believe its wave B placed in the middle of the whole structure.
  • Then at the top of that chart you will see two overlapping waves, which means volume is decreasing, bullish momentum is losing strength, so we suspect market is topping. In fact, that move, at the end has a shape of an ending diagonal pattern. Well if you know EW then you know that an ending diagonal occurs when the preceding move has gone too far too fast. They are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. These are reversal patterns.




So if we now put all together, I believe this is a corrective rally called a zig-zag which appears complete, so bears should take control as shown on the picture below. But that is just analysis, well from trading perspective thats a different story! In trading we need to more open-minded (alternations) and be very, very, very patient before pulling a trigger. With this being said, I want that my bias and forecast is confirmed by price before I buy or sell the market. So that, I want to see two things: First impulsive fall from a top that will lock highs in, and second, overlap with wave A to invalidate any bullish wave count possibilities. Only then I would short this market against the top. If I wait on those evidences of confirmation then I may avoid a losing trade, just in case if I am wrong and if market goes straight up. If my analysis was correct, then I will probably miss some potential profit before I  jump into the market. But I have no problem with that. You cannot catch a tick high and a tick low in the market-that would be a gambling then. Have a good day! Grega



Where The Market Is Headed From Here!?

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June 25 2012

Video Analysis: S&P500, Eur/Usd, Usd/Cad and Usd/Jpy

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EURUSD Update

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June 21 2012

Euro is still trapped in tight ranges around 1.2700 market and its more than obvious that corrective rally since start of June is incomplete. Notice that in the recent sell-off market did not break through the lower support line of a corrective channel, which means that price did not confirm a downtrend continuation! So for now we need to stay with current sentiment, tracking a double zig-zag headed to 1.2780 resistance area, before market turns bearish.
Bottom line: recovery is corrective and  weakness will come!

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Crude Oil Sideways Within Larger Downtrend-Bearish Break in View

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June 19 2012

Crude made only three down from 87 to 81 area which means that this structure is corrective, but part of a larger incomplete complex correction. After a sell-off yesterday, we know favours a triangle pattern placed in wave 4. However, prices are now still only in wave (d) , so more sideways before going lower. If we are correct, the prices will now remain below 85.50 short-term critical resistance.

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Euro Headed Above 1.27 Within A Corrective Rally

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June 14 2012

Euro reversed higher in this week from 1.2440 support, and did not break below former swing lows. Notice that price is actually trading sideways, which in fact count be a running triangle in wave X. So as you can see, we adjusted the wave count, but bias is the same- wave 4) is incomplete, so we are ready for even more sideways or bullish price action.




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